MotorSportsTalk’s predictions: Monaco GP

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Tony DiZinno (@tonydizinno)

Race winner: Nico Rosberg. Mercedes and Rosberg’s one-lap pace this year is unquestioned. Is this the race where the team finally puts it together from a good grid position to actually bring it home if they don’t chew through the tires as normal? I think so, for the driver who finished second here a year ago.

Surprising finish: Pastor Maldonado. It’s Monaco, where Maldonado has shone in GP2 and his rookie season in F1. Given the traditionally high attrition rates and his ability to maximize his equipment at this circuit, this is as good a place as any for the Venezuelan to finally get on the scoreboard.

Most to prove: Jules Bianchi. Looking to the back of the grid here, but Bianchi has cooled off since his hot start to his F1 career and Caterham’s improvements have brought them forward. Won here in World Series by Renault a year ago, so he’s another who has had some success on the streets of Monte Carlo.

Christopher Estrada (@estradawriting)

Race winner: Lewis Hamilton. Mercedes’ one-lap prowess, along with a Monaco circuit that’s not as harsh on tires as other tracks, means that the former World Champion has a great shot at the win on Sunday.

Surprising finish: Adrian Sutil. Scoreless since the season opener, Sutil has had to deal with some very bad luck. But his car has shown good qualifying form, which is more than half the battle in Monte Carlo.

Most to prove: Pastor Maldonado. With his team still scoreless in 2013, the Venezuelan needs every bit of his Monaco knowledge (which includes wins there in Formula Renault 3.5 and GP2) to help him bring home some needed points.

Luke Smith (@LukeSmithF1)

Race winner: Nico Rosberg. Relying Mercedes have finally solved their rear tire woes, it is hard to look past either Rosberg or Hamilton for the win. After a good showing in practice, Rosberg is currently the favorite to win on Sunday. At the track where qualifying is everything, expect the Silver Arrows to impress.

Surprising finish: Charles Pic. In this case, “surprising” is anything in the top fourteen. Caterham have pulled ahead of Marussia in the development race, and with Monaco’s habit for limiting the number of finishers, this will be the best chance either team has of scoring or getting ahead in the constructors’ championship. If it is anyone from the bottom four, it will be Pic.

Most to prove: Adrian Sutil. There is no denying that Sutil has had some bad luck of late, yet he still has just one score to his name. His good record in Monaco could prove highly valuable this weekend if he is to establish himself as the number one driver within Force India.

Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)

Race winner: Sebastian Vettel. All the talk is about Mercedes but I have a good old-fashioned hunch about the world champion. I’m tipping him to extend Red Bull’s run of Monaco Grand Prix victories to four in a row.

Surprising finish: Sergio Perez. Won at Monaco in GP2 but it hasn’t come together for him in F1 yet. Let’s see if he can get through qualifying here without a crash this time and give McLaren something to smile about.

Most to prove: Romain Grosjean. His season started to go off the rails at this race last year. His team mate’s been on the podium four times already and Grosjean needs to keep showing he can produce results like the one he had in Bahrain.

Lewis Hamilton takes sixth USGP win to stand on brink of F1 title

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Lewis Hamilton fought back from a sluggish start to claim his sixth United States Grand Prix victory on Sunday at the Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas, putting himself on the brink of a fourth Formula 1 world title win.

Hamilton entered the race weekend requiring a 16-point swing over Ferrari rival Sebastian Vettel to clinch the drivers’ crown in Austin, the site of his most recent success back in 2015.

While he was unable to finish the job on Sunday as Vettel finished second, Hamilton’s ninth win of the season makes a title win likely next weekend in Mexico City, with his points lead growing to 66 ahead of the final three races.

A slick getaway from P2 on the grid saw Vettel dive up the inside of pole-sitter Hamilton on the steep run up to Turn 1 at COTA, forcing his title rival out wide and cutting him off to seize the lead of the race.

Daniel Ricciardo attempted to follow Vettel’s lead by also passing a Mercedes in the shape of Valtteri Bottas for P3, attempting dive-bomb moves on consecutive laps, only for some astute defense from the Finn to force the Red Bull racer to settle down in fourth after a tight wheel-to-wheel battle.

Hamilton was able to stay in sight of Vettel at the front through the opening laps before closing up with some help from DRS. After a series of quick sectors, Hamilton was able to tuck in behind Vettel and make a pass on the back straight on Lap 6, taking to the inside and defending well to seize the lead from his championship rival.

Further back, Max Verstappen had been quietly picking his way through the order after starting 16th due to a grid penalty for engine changes on Saturday. The Dutchman was predicted by Red Bull to take P6 at the checkered flag, but was able to run that high after just 11 laps at COTA, completing his rise past the midfield runners with a slick pass on Esteban Ocon.

Verstappen gained another position when Red Bull teammate Ricciardo pitted early, taking on a set of super-softs and pumping in a series of quick times to try and get the undercut on the front-runners. However, the Australian’s hopes were dashed on Lap 16 when he suffered a loss of engine power, forcing him to park up at the side of the track and retire from the race.

Despite there being no safety car, Ferrari opted to bring Vettel in just moments later, fitting the German with a set of soft tires that would take him to the end of the race. Like Ricciardo, Vettel pushed hard to try and get the undercut on Hamilton at the front and claw back some of the four-second deficit as Mercedes kept its title hopeful out for an extended stint.

The strategy worked wonders for Ferrari to bring Vettel back into contention, with Hamilton’s lead being cut to less than a car length when he emerged from the pits after stopping at the end of Lap 19. Hamilton was able to quickly pull clear again, but asked Mercedes why they had allowed Vettel to get so close. Vettel, meanwhile, vented his frustration after running wide at the final corner, potentially costing him the net lead.

Vettel had a sniff of challenging for the lead again five laps later as Hamilton tried to pass Verstappen, who had risen to the front thanks to his long first stint on the super-soft tire. Despite the Red Bull driver’s best efforts to keep Hamilton back, the Briton was able to make a clean pass through the final sector, regaining the lead once again.

Verstappen pitted soon after losing the lead from Hamilton, moving onto a set of soft tires as he emerged back out in fifth place with 30 laps to try and catch Raikkonen some nine seconds up the road.

The race to top the midfield at COTA took a twist at half-distance when Fernando Alonso was forced into a frustrating retirement after an engine issue. The McLaren driver had been poised to end a points drought dating back to Hungary, and made no secret of his annoyance over team radio.

As Hamilton continued to dominate up front and pull out a healthy lead over Vettel, Ferrari was started to get nervous as its title contender started losing time to Bottas and teammate Kimi Raikkonen behind, with the pair catching and closing to within a couple of seconds. Vettel asked Ferrari to think about “plan B”, but the team kept him out as he pulled out a gap over the battling Finns again.

Verstappen continued to put pressure on the trio by catching rapidly, with Red Bull then taking the bold call to bring the Dutchman in for a second stop at the end of Lap 37, trying to force the cars ahead into pitting again.

Ferrari did not wish to take any risks, pitting Vettel just one lap later, yet Verstappen was able to close right up on the German with a rapid out lap, leaving less than a second separating them on-track. Vettel was able to open up a gap once again, with both setting their sights on the leading trio, all of whom opted to stay out.

Both were gaining time on Bottas and Raikkonen as they scrapped for position, with the latter sliding up into second with a tidy move at the end of the back straight on Lap 42, splitting the Mercedes drivers at the front.

Vettel and Verstappen continued to make inroads on the Finns in second and third, but neither had any hope of catching Hamilton at the front, who crossed the line after 56 laps to secure his sixth United States Grand Prix win, five of which have come at COTA.

The victory also confirmed Mercedes as F1 constructors’ champions for the fourth consecutive year, with the German marque moving into an unassailable lead in the teams’ standings with three races to go.

Vettel was able to fight his way back up to P2, passing Bottas with a classy move around the outside of Turn 1 before then easing past teammate Raikkonen, ensuring the title fight will continue to the next race in Mexico.

Verstappen completed the podium for Red Bull after passing both Bottas and Raikkonen late on, with his final move for P3 coming on the final lap after riding across the kerb in the final sector. As bold as the move was, the stewards quickly handed the Dutchman a five-second time penalty, stripping him of the podium and leaving him fourth behind Raikkonen.

Verstappen was therefore classified ahead of Bottas in fifth, the latter making a late stop due to fears about his tire life. Nevertheless, the result was enough for Mercedes to wrap up the constructors’ title.

Esteban Ocon finished as the top midfielder in P6 for Force India following a late fight with Carlos Sainz Jr., who delivered one of the drives of the season on debut for Renault en route to seventh. The highlight was an overtake around the outside of Sergio Perez through the long right-hander in the final sector, with the move likely to feature in many a showreel come the end of the season.

More to follow…