MotorSportsTalk’s predictions: Korean GP

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The Korean Grand Prix may be one of the least-liked races on the Formula One calendar, but it could still play a pivotal part in the course of this year’s championship. That said, the destination of the title appears to be unchanged from the past three seasons: Sebastian Vettel has made our predictions relatively simply of late. However, with the Ferrari/Mercedes, Force India/McLaren and Caterham/Marussia battles getting closer and closer, could the race in Yeongam be another twist in the 2013 season?

Tony DiZinno (@tonydizinno)

Race winner: Sebastian Vettel. Utterly peerless in the dry of late and even if the rain forecast plays a role, Vettel has starred in those conditions as well. Won Monza ’08 and China ’09 and posted a dominant performance in the wet here in 2010 before his engine blew. Impossible to pick anyone else right now.

Surprising finish: Jean-Eric Vergne. After six consecutive non-points finishes, what better place to end that streak with a match of his eighth place or better last year. Both Toro Rossos have been in points in Korea each of last two years.

Most to prove: Esteban Gutierrez. He got into Q3 at Singapore for the first time. Would love to see a similarly strong qualifying effort to match this weekend. He needs to keep improving his game with the prospect of Sirotkin entering and perhaps a more experienced second driver coming on board at Sauber in 2014.

Christopher Estrada (@estradawriting)

Race winner: Sebastian Vettel. Fun fact (or not so fun if you’re trying to chase him): The three-time defending F1 World Champion has led all but 12 laps in the history of the Korean Grand Prix.

Surprising finish: Kimi Raikkonen. Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari have been the only teams to hit the podium in this race’s history. That could change with Raikkonen, as tire management will be important on the Yeongam circuit – and this year’s Lotus has been known for being easy on their Pirellis.

Most to prove: Paul di Resta. I have to stick with di Resta in this category- five races now without a point after such a strong start to the campaign. Can he begin to close out 2013 on a high note?

Luke Smith (@LukeSmithF1)

Race winner: Sebastian Vettel. The form book is convincing enough, but Seb has been totally dominant in Korea over the years as Chris touched on. Barring an act of God, get set to hear the German and Austrian national anthems ringing out over Yeongam – without the booing this time!

Surprising finish: Esteban Gutierrez. Gutierrez was highly impressive in Singapore, qualifying in the top ten and appearing to have a renewed vigor for the final flyaways. The speedy Mexican could pick up his first points of the season here in Korea, and it would be well-timed given that his future is yet to be confirmed for 2014.

Most to prove: Sergio Perez. If paddock talk is to be believed, Checo’s place at McLaren is at risk. Having threatened to bother the front runners in Singapore before his tires faded, the Mexican needs to up his game in the final few races and prove to the team that he has what it takes to be a serious championship contender.

Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)

Race winner: Max Chilton. Just so I could pick someone other than Sebastian Vettel, who is surely going to win, barring some misfortune.

Surprising finish: Daniel Ricciardo. Hasn’t done much since signing for Red Bull. But he’s a dependable qualifier, went well here last year before suffering car problems, and Toro Rosso reckon the STR8 will suit Korea’s ‘a little bit of everything’ layout.

Most to prove: Sergio Perez. Has had a competent first season for McLaren but nothing that screams ‘star of the future’. Needs to start defying expectations – particularly in qualifying, where Button was always slightly weaker than Hamilton.

Nearly 25 drivers already set for 2018 Indy 500… in mid-November

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Friday’s announcement that Danica Patrick would end her full-time driving career with a run in the 102nd Indianapolis 500, after also running the Daytona 500 in January, is another shot in the arm for the 2018 marquee event of North American open-wheel racing.

Surprisingly, it keeps the grid moving forward too to where nearly 75 percent of the 33 cars are already set… in mid-November, 2017.

Early confirmations of programs for the next year’s Indianapolis 500 aren’t new, but they’re seemingly coming earlier than normal this year, with a number of expected programs getting announced in the fall of 2017.

Coupled with the fact most of the IndyCar full-season grid for 2018 is set, it’s interesting to take a look at what’s already set for next year.

CONFIRMED FULL-SEASON (19)

The only things to add here are Dale Coyne Racing’s second driver in the No. 19 Honda, the road and street course driver for Ed Carpenter Racing in its No. 20 Chevrolet who may or may not be able to get an Indianapolis 500 extra seat in a third car, and the expected confirmation of Carlin’s graduation into IndyCar after three seasons in Indy Lights.

  • Team Penske (3, Chevrolet): Josef Newgarden, Simon Pagenaud, Will Power
  • Chip Ganassi Racing (2, Honda): Scott Dixon, Ed Jones
  • Andretti Autosport (4, Honda): Ryan Hunter-Reay, Alexander Rossi, Marco Andretti, Zach Veach
  • Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing (2, Honda): Graham Rahal, Takuma Sato
  • Schmidt Peterson Motorsports (2, Honda): James Hinchcliffe, Robert Wickens
  • Ed Carpenter Racing (2, Chevrolet): Spencer Pigot, Ed Carpenter (ovals)
  • A.J. Foyt Enterprises (2, Chevrolet): Tony Kanaan, Matheus Leist
  • Dale Coyne Racing (1, Honda): Sebastien Bourdais
  • Harding Racing (1, Chevrolet): Gabby Chaves

CONFIRMED PARTIAL SEASON/INDY ONLY (4)

  • Team Penske (1, Chevrolet): Helio Castroneves
  • Andretti Autosport (1, Honda): Stefan Wilson
  • Juncos Racing (1, TBD): Kyle Kaiser
  • Team TBD (1, TBD): Danica Patrick

Here’s where it gets interesting. Castroneves is Team Penske’s confirmed fourth, and Juan Pablo Montoya could be a hypothetical fifth if the stars align – but it’s not in the immediate plans at this moment.

Patrick also makes her somewhat surprising Indianapolis comeback and with Penske, Andretti Autosport and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing not fielding her, the stars are aligned for her to drive with Chip Ganassi Racing in what would be a third car. Neither Patrick nor Ganassi said it’s happening today, but Ganassi acknowledged discussions, via NASCAR Talk.

Wilson finally gets his Indianapolis 500 shot with Andretti a year later as its fifth car. The team ran six last year, with the two Indy-only entries coming in separate partnership efforts between McLaren and Honda (Fernando Alonso) and Michael Shank Racing (Jack Harvey).

Jack Harvey is a very intriguing story for how he’ll be racing next year. NBC Sports understands a working relationship is being hatched between Shank and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, and with Harvey bringing a program on behalf of AutoNation/SiriusXM to grow his role into a third-to-half season of racing, this could slot in nicely as SPM’s third car. While not “officially” confirmed, it would not be a surprise to see news revealed from the concerned parties in December.

How could Harvey become SPM three when SPM three was already announced, you ask? With the Calmels Sport with SPM program reportedly on thin ice after negative press, the unlikely union of the French team owner Didier Calmels, one-time open-wheel driver turned-sports car veteran Tristan Gommendy and SPM appears set to join the “announced and dropped before ever turning a wheel” club.

Kaiser’s four-race program with Juncos Racing was announced last month and the Indy Lights champion will likely have Chevrolet power, given the team’s existing relationship from 2017.

WHAT’S STILL TO COME

Playing it out a bit with the usual, “how many engines can each manufacturer provide” story, we know Honda ran 18 cars this year and was stretched to capacity, leaving Chevrolet with the remaining 15.

Work the math from here. Provided Carlin officially announces its entry (it still hasn’t to this point, but is known to have hired IndyCar personnel) and with Honda already stretched between its 12 previously announced full-season cars (4 Andretti, 2 Ganassi, 2 RLL, 2 SPM, 2 Coyne), with a 13th engine available at some races, Carlin would have to be at Chevrolet.

For Indianapolis, Honda already begins to work its car count further beyond those 13 (if SPM 3 gets added for more races) with Ganassi 3 (a TBD, but would be Patrick if confirmed here) and Andretti 5 (Wilson) to get to 15, which leaves just three leases at play to get to 18… again, this is in mid-November.

Provided Pippa Mann can work towards her annual appearance with Coyne, factor in a possible sixth Andretti car and an 18th Honda lease – perhaps a third car at RLL or fourth at Ganassi, SPM or Coyne – and suddenly the Honda inn would already be booked up.

Chevrolet would have the rest, and you can figure out the math from there.

It may only be mid-November, but the race to secure a berth on the grid for next May is already well underway.