Australian GP wide open, both from past stats and preseason tests

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With so much yet to be determined in terms of how the pecking order will stack up for the Australian Grand Prix, perhaps past history could provide a baseline for how certain drivers have done at Albert Park.

Only two drivers competing this weekend, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen, have multiple victories in Melbourne. Button won the 2009, 2010 and 2012 editions; the first with Brawn and the last two with McLaren. Meanwhile Raikkonen won on his Ferrari debut in 2007, and also captured last year’s season opener for Lotus.

McLaren and Ferrari, this preseason, have been good but not great perhaps in terms of outright pace. The Mercedes power unit seems to have an early edge, but no one is sure whether Ferrari has showed its full hand.

A trio of World Champions: Sebastian Vettel (2011), Lewis Hamilton (2008) and Fernando Alonso (2006) have a win apiece in Melbourne. Alonso has four other podiums (two seconds and thirds) and hasn’t finished outside the top-five since 2003. Hamilton has three other podiums (one second, two thirds); meanwhile Vettel has been second and third here the last two years.

Mercedes’ Nico Rosberg hasn’t had an easy time of it in Melbourne. A third in a retirement-plagued 2008 race is his only trip to the top three. He hasn’t scored points any of the last three times in Australia, and retired in both 2011 and 2013.

Red Bull’s Daniel Ricciardo, the sole driver to wave the flag this year, posted a ninth place for Toro Rosso in 2012 and will be hoping for at least that if not more on his debut with the primary team.

From past recent Melbourne form, Lotus has been good, with Raikkonen’s win a year ago and a podium achieved by Vitaly Petrov in 2011. If similar regulations were to carry over you’d wager Romain Grosjean would have a good chance at making the rostrum, but not with the way the team’s preseason has gone in terms of time on track and reliability. Like Rosberg, Pastor Maldonado has failed to finish two of the last three Australian GPs, although he was on course to score points before a late accident in 2012.

Force India’s Nico Hulkenberg has nowhere to go but up in Melbourne. He’s yet to complete a single racing lap in three past Australian Grands Prix! Teammate Sergio Perez had his points-scoring Melbourne debut in 2011 wiped out per a disqualification; he hopes to improve on a best of eighth set in 2012.

Sauber’s Adrian Sutil did well a year ago with seventh, leading some laps on his return. Teammate Esteban Gutierrez will look to improve on 13th from his F1 debut. Toro Rosso’s Jean-Eric Vergne is yet to score in two Melbourne starts.

Williams could surprise, and a result for either Felipe Massa or Valtteri Bottas would likely be their best here. Melbourne has been a traditional bogey track for Massa, with five DNFs from his first seven Australian GP starts. But the last four have included a third (2010), seventh (2011) and fourth (2013). Bottas was 14th here a year ago.

The veterans at Caterham (Kamui Kobayashi) and Marussia (Jules Bianchi and Max Chilton) are simply looking for points; same story for the three rookies, Kevin Magnussen of McLaren, Toro Rosso’s Daniil Kvyat and Caterham’s Marcus Ericsson, who all seek a debut finish and perhaps points.

F1 Preview: 2018 Australian Grand Prix

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Save for two occasions, in 2006, and 2010, the Australian Grand Prix has served as the season-opening event for the FIA Formula 1 World Championship since 1996, and this weekend’s event will be the 21st time that the city of Melbourne has kicked off the Formula 1 campaign.

The 2018 season is the fifth one of the current hybrid power unit era, the second season of the current aero regulations, and the second under Liberty Media’s guidance.

Last year saw titans Mercedes AMG Petronas and Scuderia Ferrari duel for supremacy for most of the season before Mercedes distanced Ferrari late in the season to take the constructor’s title and the driver’s title, with Lewis Hamilton, who is now tied with Sebastian Vettel on four world championships apiece.

Four drivers on the grid have Formula 1 world championships to their name: Hamilton, Vettel, Kimi Raikkonen, and Fernando Alonso. Scuderia Toro Rosso’s Brendon Hartley also has a world championship to his name as a two-time titlist in the FIA World Endurance Championship.

So, what can viewers expect from the 2018 curtain-raiser in Australia? A handful of things to watch are below?

2018 Australian Grand Prix – Talking Points

Does Anyone Have Anything for Mercedes?

Only on one day during pre-season testing did a Mercedes driver lead the way – Lewis Hamilton was fastest on the final day of Week 1 at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.

However, all indications were that was by design, with the team focusing the majority of the second week, if not the entire second week, on long runs with their W09 EQ Power+ chassis.

Such a decision is an ominous one, in that it indicates the team is very comfortable with the amount of speed in the car and did not see a need, or desire, to show their hand during testing.

With that in mind, the Mercedes duo of Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas may yet again have the best and fastest cars, and the team looks poised to potentially make it five constructor’s and driver’s championships in a row.

Ferrari and Red Bull Look to End Mercedes Reign

The biggest threats to Mercedes are undoubtedly Ferrari and Red Bull, the only other teams to win in 2017.

And both teams displayed a lot of pace during testing, particularly in the “one-lap speed” category. Ricciardo set a lap record around the Catalunya circuit during the second week, only for Vettel to supplant that mark later in the week. Teammate Kimi Raikkonen led the way during the final day of testing.

It is unknown how that pace will translate over the course of a race distance. Mercedes appeared to have an edge on both Ferrari and Red Bull over long runs and race simulations, but there is also a theory that neither Ferrari nor Red Bull had their true long-run form on display.

Still, if a team is going to knock off Mercedes, it will likely be either Ferrari or Red Bull.

McLaren on the Rebound?

Put simply, the previous three seasons for McLaren F1 Team were a bit of a disaster. Their partnership with Honda yielded point totals of 27 (2015), 76 (2016), and 30 (2017) in a three-year venture that was defined by poor reliability and underwhelming power.

The relationship hit a boiling point last year and both entities parted ways ahead of the 2018 season, with McLaren signing a new power unit deal with Renault.

Testing went better than in previous years, though the team continued to battle reliability problems. However, all issues appeared to be minor, needling issues rather than more significant, foundational problems, as the other Renault teams (Red Bull and Renault Sport F1 Team) had solid runs with few reliability issues.

The car does appear to have speed in it, so if the reliability problems are behind them, McLaren could be in for a rebound season.

Stuck in the Midfield Again

Formula 1’s battle amongst the midfield is set to be as fierce as ever as a host of a several teams have a chance at being “best of the rest.”

Sahara Force India has been the frontrunner from the the midfield teams each of the last two years, finishing fourth in the constructor’s title in both 2016 and 2017, though if the steady conflict between drivers Esteban Ocon and Sergio Perez continues through 2018, it could hamper their efforts significantly.

Renault Sport F1 Team and Haas F1 Team look to improve on their 2017 form, while Toro Rosso is in a new partnership with Honda power units…and has experienced a surprisingly smooth pre-season as Honda’s 2018 platform looks significantly better, with the team enjoying a solid run of testing with few, if any, reliability problems.

Williams Martini Racing and Alfa Romeo Sauber appear to be at the back of the pack entering the season, but both could battle for points finishes if those ahead of them falter.