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Mercedes to clinch the constructors’ championship at Monza?

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It is pretty obvious that Mercedes will win both F1 titles in 2014. It might seem rather gloomy to already be accepting that the championships are settled, but with the battle between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg set to serve up a thrilling climax to the race for the drivers’ title, 2014 still has a lot to deliver.

However, on a UK F1 programme last night, one of the pundits made a throwaway comment and said: “Oh Mercedes will probably wrap up the constructors by Hungary or something.”

This got me thinking: just when will the Silver Arrows be crowned champions? After correctly working out that Sebastian Vettel would win his fourth world title in India last year, I’ve crunched the numbers once again and come up with a few possibilities.

Let’s set the scene for the here and now. Currently, Mercedes leads the constructors’ championship by 141 points, with a score of 240 to Red Bull’s 99. We must assume that Red Bull will be the closest challenger for the teams’ title, given its form in recent years and quite simply the fact that it lies second in the standings.

On average, Mercedes has scored 40 points per weekend (out of a possible 43), whilst Red Bull has scored 16.5. That’s a net gain for Mercedes of 23.5 points per race weekend. For the sake of argument, we’ll round that to 24.

Going on the ‘averages’ model, Mercedes will have a 285 point lead after the Belgian Grand Prix at the end of August, with 301 points left to play for.

Therefore, by this model, Mercedes will win the constructors’ championship at Monza on the Italian Grand Prix weekend. After the race, it will lead by 309 with 258 points remaining

Of course, this is heavily based on the assumption that the gap between Mercedes and the rest of the field will remain constant. Instead, it might be better to have a ‘results’ model.

With this, we’ll assume that each race ends with Mercedes finishing first and second, and Red Bull will be third and fourth. 43 points plays 27, giving us a net difference of 16 points. Of course, there will be races where Mercedes doesn’t score a one-two, and races where Red Bull doesn’t finish third and fourth. If we assume that these occurrences are roughly even, we can use the 16 point net gain as a good base.

By this model, after the Belgian Grand Prix, Mercedes will have a 237 point lead over Red Bull with 301 left on offer.

That means after the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, it will lead by 253 points with 258 left on the table. So close! Given that this race is seven races away, making up this five means that we need less than one point ‘over’ the 16 point race average to make it up.

So once again, on this model, it’s probably going to be at the Italian Grand Prix where the Silver Arrows can celebrate its first ever constructors’ title as a works team, and its third as an engine supplier. And of all places, on Ferrari’s home turf.

Monza should be the place. However, if it happens one race early in Belgium, or one race later in Singapore, I’ll claim to be half right. For those interested, here’s the working to go with it.

Of course, everything could change. Red Bull could finally get on top of its engine problems, and make a return to the front of the field. Judging by how things are going at the moment, though, the Mercedes express won’t be slowing down any time soon.

Here are your Russian Grand Prix air times on NBCSN, Live Extra

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The Russian Grand Prix airs this weekend on NBCSN, marking the second time for Formula 1 to hit the streets of Sochi after its debut at the new track last year.

Here’s your TV times breakdown:


Formula One returns to Sochi for its second race in Russia in as many years, following the first running of the Russian Grand Prix in a century last year. Mercedes enjoyed success at last year’s Russian GP, as Lewis Hamilton led Mercedes to a 1-2 finish and the team clinched its first-ever constructors’ championship. Mercedes is on the brink of winning its second straight constructors’ championship, and needs to outscore Ferrari by just three points this weekend in Sochi to secure the title.

Hamilton dominated the most recent race on the F1 calendar, the Japanese Grand Prix on Sept. 27, as he led all 53 laps to claim his eighth win of the 2015 campaign. Hamilton leads teammate Nico Rosberg by 48 points with just five races remaining in the season.

Live coverage from the Sochi Autodrom begins Friday morning with Practice 1 at 3 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Live Extra, followed by Practice 2 at 7 a.m. ET on NBCSN. Live Extra will stream Practice 3 on Saturday at 5 a.m. ET, prior to live qualifying at 8 a.m. ET on NBCSN.

Live Russian Grand Prix coverage begins Sunday at 6:30 a.m. ET on NBCSN, followed by F1 Extra at 9 a.m. ET. NBCSN will air an encore presentation of the Russian Grand Prix at noon ET on Sunday.

Lead F1 announcer Leigh Diffey will call the Russian Grand Prix, and will be joined by veteran analyst and former racecar driverDavid Hobbs, and analyst and former race mechanic for the Benetton F1 team Steve Matchett. F1 insider Will Buxton will serve as the team’s on-site reporter from the Sochi Autodrom. Alex Jacques will call the GP2 race in Sochi airing Sunday at 10:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.

F1 Motorsports Coverage This Week on NBCSN & NBC Sports Live Extra (subject to change):

Date Program Time (ET) Network
Fri., October 9 F1 Russian Grand Prix – Practice 1 3 a.m. NBC Sports Live Extra
F1 Russian Grand Prix – Practice 2 7 a.m. NBCSN
/DRIVE on NBC Sports 8:30 a.m. NBCSN
Sat., October 10 F1 Russian Grand Prix – Practice 3 5 a.m. NBCSN
F1 Russia Grand Prix – Qualifying 8 a.m. NBCSN
Sun., October 11 F1 Russian Grand Prix 6:30 a.m. NBCSN
F1 Extra 9 a.m. NBCSN
F1 Russia Grand Prix (Encore) 12 p.m. NBCSN
GP2 – Russia* 10:30 p.m. NBCSN

Rosberg: F1 title race is not over yet

xxxx during the Formula One Grand Prix of Japan at Suzuka Circuit on September 27, 2015 in Suzuka, Japan.
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Nico Rosberg is refusing to back down in the fight for the 2015 Formula 1 drivers’ championship despite trailing Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton by 48 points with five races remaining.

F1 arrives in Sochi this weekend for the Russian Grand Prix, and Rosberg knows that failing to score any points would leave Hamilton just one victory away from a third world title.

Rosberg has failed to put up the same kind of fight to his teammate this year as he did in 2014 when the championship was only decided at the final race in Abu Dhabi.

However, he is refusing to back down and write off his title hopes yet, despite not having won a race since June.

“Once I got back from Japan, I was able to focus on the positive elements from my weekend in Suzuka: pole position, the on-track pass on [Valtteri] Bottas and then having the speed to undercut [Sebastian] Vettel’s Ferrari at the second pit-stop,” Rosberg said, reflecting on his fightback to second place at Suzuka two weeks ago.

“I’m not backing down in my fight for the championship and gaining those positions back fair and square showed that. We have five races to go and, although the championship gap to Lewis is quite big, in my mind it’s definitely not over yet.

“The way the whole team has performed this year – from the factories to the garage – has been just incredible and I have the car I need to get back to the top step.”

Sochi was the site of Mercedes’ first constructors’ championship victory in 2014, and Rosberg is hoping to aid its bid to clinch a second title on Sunday.

“I really enjoyed our first trip to Russia last year and it was an awesome weekend for the team – one that I will always remember after seeing all the hard work they’ve put in during my time here,” Rosberg said.

“So, I’m aiming to put all those tools they’ve given me to good use and bring home a top result.”

The Russian Grand Prix is live on NBCSN and Live Extra this weekend.