Chase outlook brighter for some, cloudy for others after Michigan

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With 12 drivers now officially locked into the Chase for the Sprint Cup after yesterday’s Pure Michigan 400, the battle to claim one of the final four spots on the Chase Grid is set to heat up considerably over the three remaining regular season races.

Yesterday’s race saw four drivers in the thick of that battle improve their prospects by moving up in the Chase outlook, while one driver in particular suffered a major setback.

Let’s take a look at who’s now sitting on the Chase Grid and who’s on the outside looking in as Bristol Motor Speedway beckons…

13. 20-Matt Kenseth, 709 points

  • Finished 38th yesterday
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: 13th, +77 over 17th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan: 13th, +58 over 17th

Kenseth was one of multiple drivers who were collected in an early spin by Danica Patrick yesterday. Rear suspension damage on the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota forced him to the garage for repairs, and he later returned to action 27 laps down.

Luckily for Kenseth, he already had a big cushion between himself and being outside of the Chase Grid. It’s shrunk by 19 points after yesterday, but he’s still in good shape.

14. 31-Ryan Newman, 679 points

  • Finished 11th
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: 14th, +19 over 17th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan: 14th, +28 over 17th

Exchange of unpleasantness with Jimmie Johnson aside, Newman can feel alright about his 11th-place day at Michigan. In a situation where every point is going to be critical, he was able to increase his Chase cushion by nine points thanks to a late-race surge that included his run-in with the defending Sprint Cup champion.

If he can secure a Top-5 or Top-10 finish on Saturday night at Bristol, he’d be looking really good to make the post-season in his first year at Richard Childress Racing.

15. 15-Clint Bowyer, 672 points

  • Finished sixth
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: 16th, +8 over 17th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan: 15th, +21 over 17th

Also putting some ground between himself and his Chase rivals was Bowyer, who progressively moved up from mid-pack into the Top 10 late before claiming a sixth-place finish.

That’s worth a gain of 13 points over 17th, and also kicks the Kansas native up one spot on the Chase Grid to 15th. He perfectly summed it up after the race, saying: “We just did what we needed to do today.”

16. 16-Greg Biffle, 660 points

  • Finished 10th
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: 17th, -8 behind 16th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan: 16th, +9 over 17th

After doing well in qualifying, the Roush Fenway Racing camp of Greg Biffle (10th), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (15th), and Carl Edwards (23rd) couldn’t quite carry the momentum over to race day.

But by squeaking out a Top-10 finish, Biffle still pushed himself into the 16th and final position on the Chase Grid with a 17-point swing in the positive direction.

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17. 5-Kasey Kahne, 651 points

  • Finished 16th
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: 18th, -12 behind 16th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan: 17th, -9 behind 16th

Kahne was running in the Top 10 with less than 20 laps to go, but faded following the last restart of the day to a 16th-place result.

Had he not dropped spots late, he might have been able to crack the Chase Grid. But Kahne has been a solid competitor as of late at Bristol (a win, two Top-5s, three Top-10s in last 3 starts), so watch for him to be a dark horse on Saturday.

18. 3-Austin Dillon, 638 points

  • Finished 22nd
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: 19th, -18 behind 16th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan: 18th, -22 behind 16th

A mechanical issue that emerged in the second half of the race caused Dillon to lose power and ultimately swallow a sub-par finish. He moved up one position in the Chase outlook, but his overall points gap behind 16th place actually grew by four points to 22.

After the race, Dillon vowed that he and his team would “be ready to battle” at Bristol. They need to follow through on that promise.

19. 42-Kyle Larson, 636 points

  • Finished 43rd
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: 15th, +9 over 17th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan: 19th, -24 behind 16th

Larson’s crash just before halfway was a horrible twist of fate for his post-season hopes. The 43rd-place finish caused him to drop a whopping 33 points and dive from 15th on the Chase Grid to 19th and out of the picture with three races left.

There’s still time to recover, but can he put an entire weekend together and get that critical win he needs to make the post-season?

20. 9-Marcos Ambrose, 616 points

  • Finished 12th
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: 20th, -50 behind 16th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan, 20th, -44 behind 16th

One week after narrowly missing out on a golden opportunity to make the Chase on the road course at Watkins Glen, Ambrose turned in a 12th-place run at Michigan.

The points gain, however, was minimal. But keep an eye on him as we head for Bristol, where he’s earned three Top-10s in his last four starts. With a little luck, he just might get a second chance to “win and get in.”

21. 27-Paul Menard, 614 points

  • Finished 4th
  • Chase Grid Status before Michigan: -60 behind 16th
  • Chase Grid Status after Michigan: -46 behind 16th

Menard was quick during the weekend and netted his fourth Top-5 finish of the season. But after three consecutive finishes outside of the Top 30, the fourth-place effort at MIS may have been too little, too late in regards to making the Chase.

Josef Newgarden wins pole for Grand Prix of Alabama

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With time running off the clock, Josef Newgarden lapped Barber Motorsports Park with a speed of 122.773 mph to win his third career pole and first on this track in the Grand Prix of Alabama.

Newgarden was .0128 seconds faster than teammate Scott Dixon in second.

Newgarden has two previous wins at Barber. He won last year’s edition of this race after starting seventh and in 2015 from fifth.

“I didn’t know if that was going to be enough,” Newgarden said after winning the pole.

“Team Chevy has done a good job,” Newgarden said. “They’ve really given us good power this weekend – good driveability. We’re going to need some fuel mileage tomorrow, which I think we’ll have. But it’s going to get mixed up with the rain.”

Dixon’s lap of 122.750 mph was not quite enough.

“I’m sure you could pick out a number of different things on a lap when it’s that close,” Power said about what made the slight difference between him and Newgarden. “A little mistake out of 9; a little lift here or there.”

Sebastien Bourdais (122.605 mph) qualified third, with Ryan Hunter-Reay (122.159) and James Hinchliffe (121.859) rounding out the top five.

Scott Dixon was the last driver in the top six.

Fast 12

Newgarden topped this chart with a speed of 123.475 mph.

He brought Power, James Hinchcliffe, Scott Dixon, Ryan Hunter-Reay, and Sebastien Bourdais along with him to the Fast 6.

Marco Andretti (122.480), Alexander Rossi (122.216), Simon Pagenaud (122.050), Robert Wickens (122.042), Zach Veach (121.784) and Ed Jones (120.984) failed to advance.

Round 1, Group 1

Newgarden posted the fastest single lap in round one, group one of qualification for the Grand Prix of Alabama with a speed of 122.550 mph.

Hunter-Reay, Hinchcliffe, Wickens, and Andretti also advance to the fast 12.

Taking the final slot was Jones with a speed of 119.835 mph after an off-course excursion in final practice.

This was Andretti’s first advancement to the fast 12 for the first time since 2014.

Round 1, Group 2

Power had the fastest lap of 121.570 mph.

Bourdais, Veach (who is battling food poisoning-like symptoms), Rossi, and Pagenaud grabbed positions 2-4.

Scott Dixon had an uncharacteristically slow lap of 121.006, but managed to advance to the fast 12 when the session was red-flagged for an incident involving Tony Kanaan.

With three minutes remaining, Kanaan spun into the tire barriers while leaving pit road. Since he brought out the red flag, he lost his qualification time of 119.996 mph.

Takuma Sato had slipped off-course midway through the session and posted only the Ninth-fastest speed of 120.789 mph.

Results are below. The Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama rolls off at 3:00 p.m. ET.