Clinch scenarios set for next weekend’s NASCAR finale at Homestead

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The clinch scenarios for the three NASCAR national series in next weekend’s season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway are pretty cut and dry.

Let’s start with Sprint Cup, where Jimmie Johnson now holds a 28-point lead over Matt Kenseth following the events of today’s Advocare 500 at Phoenix International Raceway (won by Kevin Harvick).

Johnson can earn his sixth Cup championship by fulfilling one of the following objectives in next Sunday’s Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead:

  • Finish 23rd or better.
  • Finish 24th or better with at least one lap led.
  • Finish 25th or better with the most laps led.

Harvick, by virtue of his win today at PIR, remains eligible for the Cup championship going into Homestead. He sits third in the Chase at 34 points behind Johnson.

The NASCAR Nationwide Series will have the tightest championship battle in South Florida, as Austin Dillon holds an eight-point advantage over Sam Hornish Jr.

Dillon has a tough route to the NNS title but can pull it off in Saturday’s Ford Ecoboost 300 if he can do one of these things:

  • Finish third or better.
  • Finish fourth or better with at least one lap led.
  • Finish fifth or better with the most laps led.

The NNS owner’s championship is also up for grabs, with the No. 22 Penske Racing team only up by four points on the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing team after Kyle Busch took the No. 54 to victory at PIR this weekend. The No. 22 can only guarantee a clinch of that championship with a win at Homestead.

Finally, Matt Crafton only has to start Friday’s Ford Ecoboost 200 to win the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series championship. He currently leads by 46 points over Ty Dillon.

In the CWTS owner’s championship, Crafton’s No. 88 ThorSport Racing team leads the No. 51 Kyle Busch Motorsports team by 23 points. To secure that prize, Crafton must reach one of these goals:

  • Finish 18th or better.
  • Finish 19th or better with at least one lap led.
  • Finish 20th or better with the most laps led.

Seattle Supercross by the numbers: Three riders separated by 17 points

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Three riders remain locked in a tight battle with 17 points separating the leader Cooper Webb from third-place Chase Sexton and these are only a few Supercross numbers to consider entering Seattle.

Seattle Supercross numbers
Chase Sexton made a statement in Detroit with his second win of 2023. – Feld Motor Sports

For the fifth time in 10 rounds. Sexton, Webb, and Eli Tomac shared the podium in Detroit. Between them, the trio has taken 23 podiums, leaving only seven for the remainder of the field. Jason Anderson, Ken Roczen and Justin Barcia have two each with Aaron Plessinger scoring the other.

Webb and Tomac won the last four championships with two apiece in alternating years, but they were not one another’s primary rival for most of those seasons. On the average, however, the past four years show an incredible similarity with average points earned of 21.0 for Webb and 21.3 for Tomac. With five wins so far this season, Tomac (23 wins) leads Webb (19) in victories but Webb (43) edges Tomac (41) in podium finishes during this span.

Tomac has won two of the last three Seattle races and those two wins in this stadium are topped only by James Stewart. Fittingly, if Tomac gets a third win this week, he will tie Stewart for second on the all-time wins’ list. Tomac tied Ricky Carmichael for third with 48 wins at Oakland and took sole possession of that spot with his Daytona win.

Sexton still has a lot to say and after winning last week in Detroit, he is speaking up. The Supercross numbers are against him entering Seattle, however, because a points’ deficit this large after Round 10 has been erased only once. In 1983 David Bailey was 47 points behind Bob Hannah, and like Sexton he was also in third place. Bailey took the points’ lead with one race remaining.

The seven points Sexton was penalized last week for jumping in a red cross flag section in Detroit could prove extremely costly.

In fact, it has been a series of mistakes that has cost Sexton the most. In the last two weeks, he lost 10 points with a 10th-place finish to go with his penalty. Erase those, and all three riders hold their fate in their hands.

Plessinger’s heartbreak in Detroit is still fresh, but the upside of his run is that was his best of the season and could turn his fortunes around. Prior to that race, he led only seven laps in three mains. He was up front for 20 laps in Detroit with five of those being the fastest on the track.

Last week’s win by Hunter Lawrence tied him with his brother Jett Lawrence for 17th on the all-time wins’ list. With the focus shifting to 250 West for the next two rounds, Jett has a great opportunity to pull back ahead. The real test will be at the first East / West Showdown in East Rutherford, New Jersey on April 22.

Last Five Seattle Winners

450s
2022: Eli Tomac
2019: Marvin Musquin
2018: Eli Tomac
2017: Marvin Musquin
2014: Ryan Villopoto

250s
2022: Hunter Lawrence
2019: Dylan Ferrandis
2018: Aaron Plessinger
2017: Aaron Plessinger
2014: Cole Seely

By the Numbers

Detroit
Indianapolis
Daytona
Arlington
Oakland
Tampa
Houston
Anaheim 2
San Diego

More SuperMotocross coverage

How to Watch Seattle Supercross
Dylan Ferrandis may return before SX finale
SMX develops “Leader Lights”
Power Rankings after Detroit
Hunter Lawrence defends Haiden Deegan
Results and points after Detroit
Chase Sexton wins in Detroit, penalized seven points