Will luck finally turn for Denny Hamlin in 300th Sprint Cup start?

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Denny Hamlin opened up the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season with a runner-up in the Daytona 500, but things haven’t gone smoothly for him since then.

Now, as he comes upon his 300th career Cup start this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway, Hamlin surely hopes for more restrictor-plate success that can get him back on track.

“We certainly had a strong [Daytona] SpeedWeeks, with wins in the Sprint Unlimited and our Duel race, and backed it up with a second-place finish in the (Daytona) 500,” he said in a team release going into the weekend.

“Hopefully we can be that competitive again this weekend and run up front. These restrictor-plate races come down to a lot of circumstances and luck, but the plan is to keep the FedEx Camry up front throughout the day, stay out of trouble, and be there at the end.”

Since Daytona, Hamlin’s only been able to collect one Top-10 finish, a sixth at Bristol in March. And of course, he had to sit out Fontana due to an eye injury.

Last weekend’s race at Richmond appeared as if it was going to end with a solid result, but a late-race bump from Kyle Busch spun him out and relegated him to a 22nd-place finish.

Hamlin will have to reverse a downward trend at ‘Dega this weekend, as he hasn’t earned a Top-10 finish on NASCAR’s biggest oval since the fall of 2011. Altogether, he has three Top-5s and five Top-10s in 16 career Cup starts there.

Like many drivers, Hamlin has been pondering what tomorrow’s Sprint Cup qualifying session will bring for him. It marks the first time that NASCAR’s new knockout-style qualifying format will be used on a plate track.

“It’s going to be more of an exhibition than anything,” he said recently to USA Today and NBCSN contributor Nate Ryan. “Trust me, you’re not going to sleep uneasy the night before the race because you’re starting 25th. That can change within Lap 1.

“I think it’s more going to be a show for the fans. I think you’ll see a lot of pack drafting with teammates and manufacturers. As far as importance for the race, there’s really none.”

Seattle Supercross by the numbers: Three riders separated by 17 points

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Three riders remain locked in a tight battle with 17 points separating the leader Cooper Webb from third-place Chase Sexton and these are only a few Supercross numbers to consider entering Seattle.

Seattle Supercross numbers
Chase Sexton made a statement in Detroit with his second win of 2023. – Feld Motor Sports

For the fifth time in 10 rounds. Sexton, Webb, and Eli Tomac shared the podium in Detroit. Between them, the trio has taken 23 podiums, leaving only seven for the remainder of the field. Jason Anderson, Ken Roczen and Justin Barcia have two each with Aaron Plessinger scoring the other.

Webb and Tomac won the last four championships with two apiece in alternating years, but they were not one another’s primary rival for most of those seasons. On the average, however, the past four years show an incredible similarity with average points earned of 21.0 for Webb and 21.3 for Tomac. With five wins so far this season, Tomac (23 wins) leads Webb (19) in victories but Webb (43) edges Tomac (41) in podium finishes during this span.

Tomac has won two of the last three Seattle races and those two wins in this stadium are topped only by James Stewart. Fittingly, if Tomac gets a third win this week, he will tie Stewart for second on the all-time wins’ list. Tomac tied Ricky Carmichael for third with 48 wins at Oakland and took sole possession of that spot with his Daytona win.

Sexton still has a lot to say and after winning last week in Detroit, he is speaking up. The Supercross numbers are against him entering Seattle, however, because a points’ deficit this large after Round 10 has been erased only once. In 1983 David Bailey was 47 points behind Bob Hannah, and like Sexton he was also in third place. Bailey took the points’ lead with one race remaining.

The seven points Sexton was penalized last week for jumping in a red cross flag section in Detroit could prove extremely costly.

In fact, it has been a series of mistakes that has cost Sexton the most. In the last two weeks, he lost 10 points with a 10th-place finish to go with his penalty. Erase those, and all three riders hold their fate in their hands.

Plessinger’s heartbreak in Detroit is still fresh, but the upside of his run is that was his best of the season and could turn his fortunes around. Prior to that race, he led only seven laps in three mains. He was up front for 20 laps in Detroit with five of those being the fastest on the track.

Last week’s win by Hunter Lawrence tied him with his brother Jett Lawrence for 17th on the all-time wins’ list. With the focus shifting to 250 West for the next two rounds, Jett has a great opportunity to pull back ahead. The real test will be at the first East / West Showdown in East Rutherford, New Jersey on April 22.

Last Five Seattle Winners

450s
2022: Eli Tomac
2019: Marvin Musquin
2018: Eli Tomac
2017: Marvin Musquin
2014: Ryan Villopoto

250s
2022: Hunter Lawrence
2019: Dylan Ferrandis
2018: Aaron Plessinger
2017: Aaron Plessinger
2014: Cole Seely

By the Numbers

Detroit
Indianapolis
Daytona
Arlington
Oakland
Tampa
Houston
Anaheim 2
San Diego

More SuperMotocross coverage

How to Watch Seattle Supercross
Dylan Ferrandis may return before SX finale
SMX develops “Leader Lights”
Power Rankings after Detroit
Hunter Lawrence defends Haiden Deegan
Results and points after Detroit
Chase Sexton wins in Detroit, penalized seven points