It’s been said previously that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
And if you were to look only at the combined results of practice for the 2014 Indianapolis 500, those statistics would pretty much be lying to you.
You see, the fastest speed set this month belongs to Mikhail Aleshin, at 232.917 mph. All 33 cars’ fastest speeds were recorded with extra boost, with an increase from 130 kPa to 140 kPa, which provides more horsepower.
If you want a more realistic description of how the 98th Running will play out, don’t look at those times, but instead look at the order from Monday’s session and last week’s running.
I combined all speeds from the race boost sessions (Sunday, May 11 through Thursday, May 16 and Monday, May 19) into an Excel spreadsheet to get a gauge of how much running everyone’s done this month, and to monitor their progress over the buildup the week.
Note that many drivers took the week doing race simulations and practicing the tow effect. So speeds anywhere from 224 to 227 were frequently done in a tow; speeds less than that would generally be done in single-car runs.
Put this way; if you had a tow, and you still only made it to 223 mph or less, you’re in trouble.
Here’s a breakdown of each driver’s best lap per day, with the field sorted by Best Speed. Most bests were set Monday, the day after qualifying, with boost levels returned to the race.
# | Driver | 11-May | 12-May | 13-May | 14-May | 15-May | 19-May | Average | Best |
3 | Castroneves | 222.373 | 223.635 | 222.196 | 225.34 | 227.166 | 225.638 | 224.391 | 227.166 |
67 | Newgarden | 216.257 | 222.082 | 222.652 | 224.948 | 224.478 | 227.105 | 222.92 | 227.105 |
2 | Montoya | 222.502 | 223.395 | 224.115 | 225.134 | 224.782 | 226.532 | 224.41 | 226.532 |
9 | Dixon | 220.206 | 223.119 | 223.235 | 225.494 | 223.785 | 226.433 | 223.712 | 226.433 |
7 | Aleshin | 223.12 | 221.316 | 225.31 | 223.374 | 226.371 | 223.898 | 226.371 | |
10 | Kanaan | 220.755 | 222.635 | 221.972 | 224.752 | 224.836 | 226.336 | 223.548 | 226.336 |
20 | Carpenter | 219.899 | 220.898 | 224.492 | 226.257 | 224.492 | 223.207 | 226.257 | |
21 | Hildebrand | 222.2 | 221.266 | 221.737 | 225.844 | 224.825 | 226.232 | 223.684 | 226.232 |
77 | Pagenaud | 221.862 | 223.063 | 226.122 | 224.655 | 224.909 | 224.122 | 226.122 | |
12 | Power | 223.057 | 221.735 | 221.61 | 175.729 | 225.899 | 226.107 | 223.682 | 226.107 |
22 | Karam | 217.31 | 220.543 | 222.635 | 222.096 | 223.903 | 225.929 | 222.069 | 225.929 |
83 | Kimball | 221.845 | 218.229 | 221.937 | 224.544 | 223.344 | 225.846 | 222.624 | 225.845 |
19 | Wilson | 223.611 | 221.184 | 225.058 | 223.491 | 225.771 | 223.823 | 225.771 | |
25 | Andretti | 218.447 | 224.037 | 223.605 | 224.37 | 224.643 | 225.769 | 223.479 | 225.769 |
28 | Hunter-Reay | 222.134 | 225.025 | 223.612 | 225.11 | 225.45 | 225.719 | 224.508 | 225.719 |
26 | Busch | 220.352 | 222.77 | 224.159 | 224.739 | 225.623 | 223.529 | 225.623 | |
6 | Bell | 220.84 | 220.307 | 222.249 | 225.484 | 223.617 | 222.499 | 225.484 | |
8 | Briscoe | 219.745 | 222.132 | 222.364 | 225.276 | 224.371 | 225.151 | 223.173 | 225.276 |
27 | Hinchcliffe | 225.255 | 225.255 | 225.255 | |||||
41 | Plowman | 216.165 | 218.852 | 218.38 | 221.013 | 223.495 | 224.855 | 220.46 | 224.855 |
27 | Viso | 222.105 | 222.695 | 224.488 | 224.731 | 222.782 | 223.36 | 224.731 | |
11 | Bourdais | 220.116 | 220.856 | 224.307 | 224.655 | 224.359 | 222.859 | 224.655 | |
34 | Munoz | 220.581 | 223.172 | 222.402 | 223.754 | 222.522 | 224.54 | 222.829 | 224.54 |
68 | Tagliani | 219.557 | 221.408 | 220.146 | 224.384 | 224.067 | 224.387 | 222.325 | 224.387 |
33 | Davison | 217.052 | 224.33 | 220.691 | 224.33 | ||||
18 | Huertas | 219.246 | 219.345 | 223.651 | 224.242 | 223.495 | 221.996 | 224.242 | |
5 | Villeneuve | 220.07 | 221.101 | 220.89 | 221.682 | 223.536 | 224.029 | 221.885 | 224.029 |
98 | Hawksworth | 221.257 | 224 | 43.77 | 222.602 | 222.62 | 224 | ||
63 | Mann | 220.206 | 219.282 | 223.984 | 223.441 | 223.073 | 221.997 | 223.984 | |
17 | Saavedra | 208.985 | 223.181 | 223.955 | 222.48 | 223.205 | 223.955 | ||
14 | Sato | 217.84 | 220.891 | 222.483 | 223.329 | 223.793 | 222.833 | 221.861 | 223.793 |
15 | Rahal | 217.454 | 221.107 | 219.703 | 222.152 | 223.478 | 222.773 | 221.111 | 223.478 |
91 | Lazier | 218.277 | 222.961 | 220.619 | 222.961 | ||||
16 | Servia | 219.15 | 221.529 | 219.674 | 222.78 | 222.131 | 221.272 | 221.089 | 222.78 |
Take that data and sort it by best average speed over the six days, excluding days where drivers only got out for shakedowns, systems checks and installation checks, and you’ll see a slightly different pattern emerge.
# | Driver | 11-May | 12-May | 13-May | 14-May | 15-May | 19-May | Average | Best |
27 | Hinchcliffe | 225.255 | 225.255 | 225.255 | |||||
28 | Hunter-Reay | 222.134 | 225.025 | 223.612 | 225.11 | 225.45 | 225.719 | 224.508 | 225.719 |
2 | Montoya | 222.502 | 223.395 | 224.115 | 225.134 | 224.782 | 226.532 | 224.41 | 226.532 |
3 | Castroneves | 222.373 | 223.635 | 222.196 | 225.34 | 227.166 | 225.638 | 224.391 | 227.166 |
77 | Pagenaud | 221.862 | 223.063 | 226.122 | 224.655 | 224.909 | 224.122 | 226.122 | |
7 | Aleshin | 223.12 | 221.316 | 225.31 | 223.374 | 226.371 | 223.898 | 226.371 | |
19 | Wilson | 223.611 | 221.184 | 225.058 | 223.491 | 225.771 | 223.823 | 225.771 | |
9 | Dixon | 220.206 | 223.119 | 223.235 | 225.494 | 223.785 | 226.433 | 223.712 | 226.433 |
21 | Hildebrand | 222.2 | 221.266 | 221.737 | 225.844 | 224.825 | 226.232 | 223.684 | 226.232 |
12 | Power | 223.057 | 221.735 | 221.61 | 175.729 | 225.899 | 226.107 | 223.682 | 226.107 |
10 | Kanaan | 220.755 | 222.635 | 221.972 | 224.752 | 224.836 | 226.336 | 223.548 | 226.336 |
26 | Busch | 220.352 | 222.77 | 224.159 | 224.739 | 225.623 | 223.529 | 225.623 | |
25 | Andretti | 218.447 | 224.037 | 223.605 | 224.37 | 224.643 | 225.769 | 223.479 | 225.769 |
27 | Viso | 222.105 | 222.695 | 224.488 | 224.731 | 222.782 | 223.36 | 224.731 | |
20 | Carpenter | 219.899 | 220.898 | 224.492 | 226.257 | 224.492 | 223.207 | 226.257 | |
17 | Saavedra | 208.985 | 223.181 | 223.955 | 222.48 | 223.205 | 223.955 | ||
8 | Briscoe | 219.745 | 222.132 | 222.364 | 225.276 | 224.371 | 225.151 | 223.173 | 225.276 |
67 | Newgarden | 216.257 | 222.082 | 222.652 | 224.948 | 224.478 | 227.105 | 222.92 | 227.105 |
11 | Bourdais | 220.116 | 220.856 | 224.307 | 224.655 | 224.359 | 222.859 | 224.655 | |
34 | Munoz | 220.581 | 223.172 | 222.402 | 223.754 | 222.522 | 224.54 | 222.829 | 224.54 |
83 | Kimball | 221.845 | 218.229 | 221.937 | 224.544 | 223.344 | 225.846 | 222.624 | 225.845 |
98 | Hawksworth | 221.257 | 224 | 43.77 | 222.602 | 222.62 | 224 | ||
6 | Bell | 220.84 | 220.307 | 222.249 | 225.484 | 223.617 | 222.499 | 225.484 | |
68 | Tagliani | 219.557 | 221.408 | 220.146 | 224.384 | 224.067 | 224.387 | 222.325 | 224.387 |
22 | Karam | 217.31 | 220.543 | 222.635 | 222.096 | 223.903 | 225.929 | 222.069 | 225.929 |
63 | Mann | 220.206 | 219.282 | 223.984 | 223.441 | 223.073 | 221.997 | 223.984 | |
18 | Huertas | 219.246 | 219.345 | 223.651 | 224.242 | 223.495 | 221.996 | 224.242 | |
5 | Villeneuve | 220.07 | 221.101 | 220.89 | 221.682 | 223.536 | 224.029 | 221.885 | 224.029 |
14 | Sato | 217.84 | 220.891 | 222.483 | 223.329 | 223.793 | 222.833 | 221.861 | 223.793 |
15 | Rahal | 217.454 | 221.107 | 219.703 | 222.152 | 223.478 | 222.773 | 221.111 | 223.478 |
16 | Servia | 219.15 | 221.529 | 219.674 | 222.78 | 222.131 | 221.272 | 221.089 | 222.78 |
33 | Davison | 217.052 | 224.33 | 220.691 | 224.33 | ||||
91 | Lazier | 218.277 | 222.961 | 220.619 | 222.961 | ||||
41 | Plowman | 216.165 | 218.852 | 218.38 | 221.013 | 223.495 | 224.855 | 220.46 | 224.855 |
Although James Hinchcliffe makes it to the top of the best average practice speed chart, his ultimate race pace is likely to be closer to the mark set by fill-in driver EJ Viso earlier in the week. Hinchcliffe had only the one day of practice in race boost, while everyone else in the field had at least two or more.
Note that after the Andretti Autosport pair of Hinchcliffe and Ryan Hunter-Reay, who seemed to struggle in qualifying with the boost increase, and two of Roger Penske’s three drivers, the next two on the average speed come from Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.
I am not too surprised to see Simon Pagenaud running as well as he is – now in his third year on ovals, he has done the methodical growth needed to prepare himself for his opportunity to win the 500 this year. An oval win – which would be his first – would solidify his status as one of IndyCar’s top two or three drivers (if it hasn’t been already).
And rookie teammate Aleshin, while his ultimate one-lap set with the extra boost generated some headlines, has been impressive as well. This will be the Russian’s first ever oval race and if he can run as well in traffic in the race as he has in practice, he appears to have the fearless tenacity to surprise and perhaps take home the Sunoco Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year honors.
Justin Wilson is also a top sleeper. He’s grown on ovals by leaps and bounds the last couple years and has quietly been Honda’s best under-the-radar threat. Driving the No. 19 Boy Scouts of America Honda for Dale Coyne Racing, Wilson is going to stealthily hang around on Sunday.
The teams I worry about, unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat in terms of fuel mileage and/or strategy on Sunday, are Chip Ganassi Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and KV Racing Technology. None of their combined 11 drivers have shown the ultimate race pace needed to stay in contention with the Andretti, Penske, and Ed Carpenter Racing cars in practice.
But if speed is an issue for those three, strategy and guile won’t be. These are three teams who have won ‘500s before – CGR and KVRT are the two most recent winners and RLLR has factored into win contention in two of the last three (2011 with Bertrand Baguette, 2012 with Takuma Sato) – and have the strategic expertise to play themselves into contention even if they don’t have the ultimate pace.
Remember too that defending series champion Scott Dixon is probably the field’s best at saving fuel, and that could play into his advantage later on. Teammate and defending race winner Tony Kanaan is, of course, the restart master and half the price of admission on his own Sunday.
The elements of speed versus strategy should make for a fascinating race on Sunday. But we’ll see if the practice results from the week that was stay true to form, or become a lie of their own.