MotorSportsTalk’s Predictions: Canadian GP

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Formula 1 makes its first visit to North America this weekend for the Canadian Grand Prix. After yet another Hamilton-Rosberg face-off in Monaco, the embers in the Mercedes fire appear to have cooled slightly, and relations between the two have improved. Of course, we will see on track just whether any love has been lost between our championship protagonists.

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve should see the Mercedes-powered cars dominate thanks to the long straights, requiring a good top speed. Renault claims to have made a step forwards, but Red Bull might be left scrapping with Force India and Williams this weekend. Can our writing experts make some sense of it all?

Luke Smith (@LukeSmithF1)

Race winner: Lewis Hamilton. Are you a Team Nico or Team Lewis? This weekend you want to be the latter. Montreal has traditionally been a Hamilton stronghold, so expect him to win out this weekend ahead of his teammate.

Surprising finish: Nico Hulkenberg. This circuit should allow the Mercedes-powered cars to excel and flourish, so Force India could be in line to challenge for a podium finish. This weekend could bring the Hulk’s first – and frankly overdue – podium finish.

Most to prove: Sauber. I write the same thing about Sauber for every single race – must improve! The car isn’t great, but now that the team has slipped behind Marussa in the constructors’ championship, the pressure will truly be on the Swiss team.

Tony DiZinno (@tonydizinno)

Race winner: Lewis Hamilton. A track where he’s been dynamic in the past and with the motivation of wanting to avenge the loss in Monaco, I’ll say Hamilton takes it this weekend.

Surprising finish: Nico Hulkenberg. Hard to call much this kid does a “surprise” anymore but I feel that elusive first podium for him is achievable this weekend. If not, another “only” top-five will suffice.

Most to prove: Sauber. There’s not really an obvious “most to prove” candidate this weekend but given it’s now behind Marussia in the Constructor’s Championship and hasn’t shown any semblance of points-scoring potential, hopefully the Swiss squad can be something other than neutral this weekend.

Christopher Estrada (@estradawriting)

Race winner: Lewis Hamilton. With Circuit Gilles Villeneuve’s long straights providing ample opportunity for the Mercedes engine to show its stuff, it’ll be down to Hamilton and Rosberg for the win again. Hamilton’s won three times in Montreal, while Rosberg has never cracked the podium there. I gotta go with the Brit.

Surprising finish: Valtteri Bottas. Outside of Mercedes, it’s a tight battle among multiple squads for “best of the rest.” But after a disappointing power unit failure in Monaco, I figure that Bottas will be raring to go for Williams. He could be a contender for the last spot on the podium.

Most to prove: Sebastian Vettel. After delivering a stellar drive in Spain, a gearbox problem in Monaco handed the four-time defending World Champion his second DNF of the season. With engine supplier Renault saying Canada is their first real chance to properly stack up against the competition, Vettel needs to come through as he did in Barcelona.

Jerry Bonkowski (@JerryBonkowski)

Race winner: Nico Rosberg. It’s time for Rosberg to try and put more room between himself and fellow Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton. Thus far, this has been a classic matchup and done wonders for the overall team. But as each race goes by from this point on, it’s going to be every man for himself.

Surprising finish: Daniel Ricciardo. On paper, Ricciardo has been having an excellent season, ranked fourth after the first six races of the 19-race F1 schedule. But at the same time, Ricciardo is a distant fourth in terms of points behind Rosberg and Hamilton. Ricciardo needs to start picking up more points from here on out if he hopes to catch one or both of the Mercedes drivers.

Most to prove: Pastor Maldonado (and friends). Yes, Maldonado is ranked last in the points, joining five other drivers (Marcus Ericsson, Adrian Stuil, Esteban Gutierrez, Max Chilton and Kamui Kobayashi) who also have not earned any points thus far this season. But somewhere along the way, Maldonado and his fellow points-less drivers need to add some to their woeful earnings to date.

Seattle Supercross by the numbers: Three riders separated by 17 points

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Three riders remain locked in a tight battle with 17 points separating the leader Cooper Webb from third-place Chase Sexton and these are only a few Supercross numbers to consider entering Seattle.

Seattle Supercross numbers
Chase Sexton made a statement in Detroit with his second win of 2023. – Feld Motor Sports

For the fifth time in 10 rounds. Sexton, Webb, and Eli Tomac shared the podium in Detroit. Between them, the trio has taken 23 podiums, leaving only seven for the remainder of the field. Jason Anderson, Ken Roczen and Justin Barcia have two each with Aaron Plessinger scoring the other.

Webb and Tomac won the last four championships with two apiece in alternating years, but they were not one another’s primary rival for most of those seasons. On the average, however, the past four years show an incredible similarity with average points earned of 21.0 for Webb and 21.3 for Tomac. With five wins so far this season, Tomac (23 wins) leads Webb (19) in victories but Webb (43) edges Tomac (41) in podium finishes during this span.

Tomac has won two of the last three Seattle races and those two wins in this stadium are topped only by James Stewart. Fittingly, if Tomac gets a third win this week, he will tie Stewart for second on the all-time wins’ list. Tomac tied Ricky Carmichael for third with 48 wins at Oakland and took sole possession of that spot with his Daytona win.

Sexton still has a lot to say and after winning last week in Detroit, he is speaking up. The Supercross numbers are against him entering Seattle, however, because a points’ deficit this large after Round 10 has been erased only once. In 1983 David Bailey was 47 points behind Bob Hannah, and like Sexton he was also in third place. Bailey took the points’ lead with one race remaining.

The seven points Sexton was penalized last week for jumping in a red cross flag section in Detroit could prove extremely costly.

In fact, it has been a series of mistakes that has cost Sexton the most. In the last two weeks, he lost 10 points with a 10th-place finish to go with his penalty. Erase those, and all three riders hold their fate in their hands.

Plessinger’s heartbreak in Detroit is still fresh, but the upside of his run is that was his best of the season and could turn his fortunes around. Prior to that race, he led only seven laps in three mains. He was up front for 20 laps in Detroit with five of those being the fastest on the track.

Last week’s win by Hunter Lawrence tied him with his brother Jett Lawrence for 17th on the all-time wins’ list. With the focus shifting to 250 West for the next two rounds, Jett has a great opportunity to pull back ahead. The real test will be at the first East / West Showdown in East Rutherford, New Jersey on April 22.

Last Five Seattle Winners

450s
2022: Eli Tomac
2019: Marvin Musquin
2018: Eli Tomac
2017: Marvin Musquin
2014: Ryan Villopoto

250s
2022: Hunter Lawrence
2019: Dylan Ferrandis
2018: Aaron Plessinger
2017: Aaron Plessinger
2014: Cole Seely

By the Numbers

Detroit
Indianapolis
Daytona
Arlington
Oakland
Tampa
Houston
Anaheim 2
San Diego

More SuperMotocross coverage

How to Watch Seattle Supercross
Dylan Ferrandis may return before SX finale
SMX develops “Leader Lights”
Power Rankings after Detroit
Hunter Lawrence defends Haiden Deegan
Results and points after Detroit
Chase Sexton wins in Detroit, penalized seven points