MotorSportsTalk’s Predictions: German GP

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With Germany currently going World Cup crazy, the pressure is well and truly on both Nico Rosberg and the Mercedes team to keep the good times going with victory at this weekend’s German Grand Prix.

Hoping to stop Nico will be Britain’s Lewis Hamilton, who claimed an emotional home win last time out at Silverstone. His victory, combined with Rosberg’s first retirement of the season, saw the gap at the top of the standings drop to just four points in favor of the German. Having won here back in 2008, Lewis will know that a repeat result will give him the lead of the drivers’ championship for just the second time this season.

With that, plus the likes of Sebastian Vettel, Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen hoping to play a supporting role, the MST writing team has to think carefully for its picks this weekend.

Luke Smith (@LukeSmithF1)

Race winner: Lewis Hamilton. As cool as a home win for Nico Rosberg would be, Lewis has the momentum right now. This is a track that he likes, and was the scene of one of his greatest ever wins back in 2008. I’m backing the Briton to become Mercedes’ first home winner since Fangio in 1954.

Surprising finish: Nico Hulkenberg. Where better to secure your first ever podium finish in F1 than at your home race? I’m tipping Nico to score his first – and frankly overdue – top three finish this weekend at a track that should suit Force India.

Most to prove: SauberAargh! Seriously! It sums up Sauber’s season that it matched its best qualifying result of the season at Silverstone despite both cars finishing in the gravel. A change must come for Sauber, surely?

Tony DiZinno (@tonydizinno)

Race winner: Nico Rosberg. Pivotal weekend for Nico to bounce back after Silverstone DNF. He’s got everything else going for him this week, why not a home GP victory to match Lewis?

Surprising finish: Nico Hulkenberg. While Williams has done better in the “second best Mercedes power unit” class of late, the Hockenheim circuit and return to softer tyre compounds should favor the Force India. And Hulkenberg is usually my pick ahead of Perez, especially on home soil.

Most to prove: Kamui Kobayashi. In part because this might be the last time he gets picked for anything this year! The usually fearless driver hasn’t had drives reminiscent of those at Sauber. He may be on borrowed time at Caterham and could use a standout showing. Raikkonen and Sutil are also due to perform but their seats aren’t yet in immediate danger.

Christopher Estrada (@estradawriting)

Race winner: Lewis Hamilton. Never mind Nico Rosberg’s amazing week that has seen him get married, sign a contract extension, and see Germany win the World Cup. Hamilton’s win at Silverstone was the perfect thing to revitalize him, and he’ll ruin Rosberg’s homecoming at Hockenheim.

Surprising finish: Fernando Alonso. The Spaniard has won the last two German GPs at Hockenheim (2010, 2012). A third consecutive win at this track is probably too much to ask considering Ferrari’s overall pace, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him challenge for the last step on the podium.

Most to prove: Nico Hulkenberg. Neither he or Force India teammate Sergio Perez had ideal balance at Silverstone, but Hockenheim and the tire compounds should be a better fit – and the Hulk will be very anxious to continue his points streak at what was his local circuit when he was growing up.

Jerry Bonkowski (@JerryBonkowski)

Race winner: Nico Rosberg. Even though he leads the F1 points, Rosberg still trails Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton when it comes to wins (Hamilton has five, Rosberg has three). Plus, Nico is on home turf this weekend. We expect him to put on a dominating performance – and leave Hamilton in his dust.

Surprising finish: Sebastian Vettel. Again, we’re going with homeland edge. Sebastian Vettel will rise to the occasion in front of his countrymen and comes “home” – so to speak – with a podium finish. Vettel has struggled far too much and far too long this season. He needs a homecourt advantage and he gets one Sunday.

Most to prove: Felipe Massa. Who doesn’t have a lot to prove heading into the 10th race of the season? Teams and drivers that we expected to do well heading into the 2014 season have been like fish out of water and floundered miserably. We could probably pick a dozen drivers that fit in this category, but we’ll go with Felipe Massa. While Massa has dipped to 10th place, his teammate, Valtteri Bottas, has had a strong season with a solid fifth-place ranking. Since their cars are so similar, obviously the shortcoming in the difference between the two has to be the individual talent behind the wheel.

Jack Miller wins the MotoGP Japanese Grand Prix as Fabio Quartararo stops his downward points’ slide

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Jack Miller ran away with the MotoGP Japanese Grand Prix at Motegi as Fabio Quartararo stopped his downward slide in the championship when a last-lap accident from his closest rival in the standings caused Francesco Bagnaia to score zero points.

Starting seventh, Miller quickly made his way forward. He was second at the end of two laps. One lap later, he grabbed the lead from Jorge Martin. Once in the lead, Miller posted three consecutive fastest laps and was never seriously challenged. It was Australian native Miller’s first race win of the season and his sixth podium finish.

The proximity to his home turf was not lost.

“I can ride a motorcycle sometimes,” Miller said in NBC Sports’ post-race coverage. “I felt amazing all weekend since I rolled out on the first practice. It feels so awesome to be racing on this side of the world.

“What an amazing day. It’s awesome; we have the home Grand Prix coming up shortly. Wedding coming up in a couple of weeks. I’m over the moon; can’t thank everyone enough.”

Miller beat Brad Binder to the line by 3.4 seconds with third-place Jorge Martin finishing about one second behind.

But the center of the storm was located just inside the top 10 as both Quartararo and Bagnaia started deep in the field.

Quartararo was on the outside of row three in ninth with Bagnaia one row behind in 12th. Neither rider moved up significantly, but the championship continued to be of primary importance as Bagnaia put in a patented late-race charge to settle onto Quartararo’s back tire, which would have allowed the championship leader to gain only a single point.

On the final lap, Bagnaia charged just a little too hard and crashed under heavy braking, throwing away the seven points he would have earned for a ninth-place finish.

The day was even more dramatic for the rider who entered the MotoGP Japanese Grand Prix third in the standings. On the sighting lap, Aleix Espargaro had an alarm sound, so he peeled off into the pits, dropped his primary bike and jumped aboard the backup. Starting from pit lane, he trailed the field and was never able to climb into the points. An undisclosed electronic problem was the culprit.

For Quartararo, gaining eight points on the competition was more than a moral victory. This was a track on which he expected to run moderately, and he did, but the problems for his rivals gives him renewed focus with four rounds remaining.

Next week, the series heads to Thailand and then Miller’s home track of Phillip Island in Australia. They will close out the Pacific Rim portion of the schedule before heading to Spain for the finale in early November.

It would appear team orders are not in play among the Ducati riders. Last week’s winner Enea Bastianini made an aggressive early move on Bagnaia for position before the championship contender wrestled the spot back.

In his second race back following arm surgery, Marc Marquez won the pole. His last pole was more than 1,000 days ago on this same track in 2019, the last time the series competed at Motegi. Marquez slipped to fifth in the middle stages of the race, before regaining a position to finish just off the podium.

In Moto2 competition, Ai Ogura beat Augusto Fernandez to close the gap in that championship to two points. Fernandez holds the scant lead. Alonso Lopez rounded out the podium.

Both American riders, Cameron Beaubier and Joe Roberts finished just outside the top 10 in 11th and 12th respectively.