Realistically, could Toronto IndyCar shift date to CTMP?

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The 800-pound gorilla in the room this weekend at the Honda Indy Toronto was the future of the race’s event date next year, as the Pan-Am Games come in August 2015 and would require INDYCAR to shift its date forward from July.

Honda Indy Toronto President/GM Charlie Johnstone hinted to MotorSportsTalk over the weekend that a deal was close for IndyCar to return next year, but couldn’t be pressed on a date itself.

As the Toronto weekend fell at the end of a six races in four weekend stretch, options to move it forward are a bit limited. Late June would seem to be the best option in theory.

But here’s where things get interesting. A report from The Globe & Mail’s Jeff Pappone said the Toronto weekend, per a source with knowledge of an early 2015 IndyCar schedule, could move to early June. That would put it near or perhaps on the same weekend as the Canadian Grand Prix, the country’s marquee motorsports event at Montreal. The Toronto race also has to renew its deal with the city.

The TUDOR United SportsCar Championship raced at nearby Canadian Tire Motorsport Park in mid-July this year, and the investment made by the new ownership group of Ron Fellows, Carlo Fidani and Al Boughton has seen the Bowmanville track upgrade its facilities, paddock, media center and atmosphere. Promotion has also increased, with several events.

A CTMP race would solve several problems for IndyCar. For one, it’s a natural terrain, permanent road course – something that only appears on the schedule three times all this year (while the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course exists, it’s an infield one, and not set up purely as a road course).

Secondly, it could enhance the track’s bottom line. While the TUDOR Championship seeks to be a marquee series, an IndyCar event has the potential to see an increase in ticket and merchandise sales. Camping could occur, something that isn’t an option at Exhibition Place. The track’s openness could allow for INDYCAR-type facilities like the Fan Village, which was not in Toronto this year, to be brought in. The potential downside is the track would need to pay INDYCAR’s sanctioning fee, and there’d be the cost of potential infrastructure/safety upgrades at some areas of the track.

But where there’s a potentially thorny conflict would be with IMSA itself, assuming it returns to CTMP next year (given most new IMSA dates are multiyear contracts, there’s every reason to expect it will). IMSA has stated that as it plans to grow the TUDOR Championship, it seeks to be the lead event on race weekends; with no disrespect, an IndyCar race on the same weekend likely would see it as the headliner and the TUDOR Championship secondary.

It’s the same problem that currently exists at Road America here in Elkhart Lake, Wis., another pristine road course that doubles as a natural park. Seemingly everyone and their dog wants it to come back for IndyCar, but until a sponsor pays for it and the sanctioning fee amount comes down, it’s not going to happen. Every year around this time is the same song and dance about wanting it back, but it will remain an eternal pipe dream until everyone gets on the same page.

Where TUDOR has opted to take the undercard has been at the Long Beach and Detroit street races, because it would have no other way of getting onto the schedule given the streets are only shut down once annually.

If CTMP could make the numbers work to where a separate IndyCar weekend could occur, with the usual additions of the Mazda Road to Indy and/or the Pirelli World Challenge (PWC raced a Touring Car event in May at CTMP this weekend and GT has been there before), then a late July date would be possible. It’s doubtful IndyCar and TUDOR would race on the same weekend at CTMP.

But man almighty, the prospect of open-wheel back at a legendary road course is mouth-watering. Like Road America however, it may only be a dream.

Marvin Musquin’s Indy win may have come too late

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Marvin Musquin answered one question at Indianapolis last week, but the biggest one may well plague him for the next six weeks.

Musquin has won a battle, but can he win the war?

After standing on the podium in eight of the first 10 races, Musquin finally showed the field he was capable of winning in Indy when he grabbed the holeshot and led every lap on the way to Victory Lane. He was never seriously challenged and it was the Musquin that Supercross fans expected to see all season.

It was a long time coming. Musquin must have felt like victory was just around the corner after finishing second in the overall standings in Anaheim II’s Triple Crown race. He was third in the first Main that night and second in the last two Mains.

As it turned out, that single race defined his season until last week. Musquin stood on the podium all night, but he finished two spots behind Cooper Webb in the first Main and was one spot back in the second. It was only as time ran out that he was able to beat Webb by a single spot in the third Main. If Musquin had won either of the first two Mains, he would have had the overall victory – denying Webb his first career win in the process.

Webb’s Anaheim win revitalized the rider and gave him the confidence to rattle off four more wins in the next seven races.

Meanwhile, Musquin scored podium finishes in the next seven races, making him almost perfect. In another season, a record like that would have been enough to give him a comfortable points lead. In 2019, he sit 14 markers out of first, which is the points’ equivalent of the difference between first and 11th in one race. In other words, Webb cannot lose the points lead at Seattle unless he finishes outside the top 10 while his teammate wins.

Looking at the numbers another way the scenario is not quite as hopeless. Musquin needs to shave only 2.3 points off Webb’s lead each week to win the championship. Three points separate first and second. Five points differentiates first from third, which is where Webb finished in Indianapolis. Webb is vulnerable as his 10th-place finish at Glendale and an eighth at San Diego attest.

Those bobbles came early and Webb seems to have forgotten how to make a mistake.

A third-place is Webb’s worst finish in the last six weeks and since Anaheim II when Musquin started his impressive string of podium finishes, Webb has recorded an average finish of 2.2. That came with a worst finish of eighth on an extremely muddy and heavy track in San Diego. Musquin has a worst finish of only sixth, but his average of 2.8 still lags behind Webb.

Worse still, since Anaheim II Musquin has finished behind Webb in every race except for the outlier of San Diego.

It is no longer a question of keeping pressure on Webb. Musquin cannot expect his teammate to make a mistake; he has to find a way to pass him on the track. If Webb adds only two points to his lead at Seattle, Musquin’s fate would no longer be in his hands. He would need to gain 3.2 points per race. With that scenario, Webb could finish one spot behind Musquin every week and still win the championship.