Your Chase clinch scenarios for Saturday's regular season finale - MotorSportsTalk

The final two Chase Grid spots will be on the line in Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

At the front of that battle are the group of four drivers that can still make it on points alone – 15th-place Ryan Newman, 16th-place Greg Biffle, 17th-place Clint Bowyer, and 18th-place Kyle Larson.

But there’s also another group of 15 drivers within the Top 30 in NASCAR Sprint Cup points that can crash the Chase party in the only way they can.

Win.

However, out of all those hopefuls, only one driver can enter the Commonwealth of Virginia in charge of his own destiny, and that’s Newman (+42 over the cutoff).

His scenario is simple: Finish 18th or better on Saturday night, and he’s in the show. It bears noting that Newman has earned three Top-10s in his last four starts at Richmond (he finished eighth there in the spring).

For Biffle, Bowyer, and Larson, however, things are a bit more complex.

Should there be a repeat winner, or if winless No. 14 seed Kenseth or Newman win, Biffle clinches with a finish of 22nd or better.

But if there is a new winner that isn’t Kenseth or Newman, then Biffle has to out-point Newman by 19 points and beat both Bowyer and Larson – the latter two drivers having an opportunity if Biffle has a poor run.

Biffle’s record at Richmond has not been strong, as he’s only earned one Top-10 finish there since 2007. However, he’s been on a solid run as of late with Top-10 finishes in the last five races. Something will have to give.

As noted yesterday, Bowyer’s a two-time winner at Richmond, so he’ll be looking to come off the truck fast. This past spring, though, he finished dead last there after his right wheel well caught on fire before the halfway point.

In that race, Bowyer also dumped Larson, the polesitter, on the opening lap. Larson recovered to finish 16th in a solid drive from the back. If he can avoid trouble, he can be a factor on Saturday night.

Then there are those aforementioned 15 drivers who must have a win on Saturday to make the Chase – a group that includes Paul Menard, Austin Dillon, Jamie McMurray, Brian Vickers, Marcos Ambrose, Casey Mears, Martin Truex Jr., Tony Stewart, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Danica Patrick, Justin Allgaier, Michael Annett, David Gilliland, David Ragan, and Cole Whitt.

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Miguel Oliveira mastered mixed conditions on the Chang International Circuit in Buriram, Thailand to win the MotoGP Thai Grand Prix. Oliveira showed the adaptability as he navigated a race that began in wet conditions and turned dry over the course of the race. Oliveira won the Indonesian GP in similar conditions.

“It was a long race, but I can’t complain,” Oliveira said on CNBC. “Every time we get to ride in the wet, I’m always super-fast. When it started raining, I had flashbacks of Indonesia. I tried to keep my feet on the ground, make a good start and not make mistakes and carry the bike to the end.”

All eyes were on the championship, however. Francesco Bagnaia got a great start to slot into second in Turn 1.

Meanwhile Fabio Quartararo had a disastrous first lap. He lost five positions in the first couple of turns and then rode over the rumble strips and fell back to 17th. At the end of the first lap, Bagnaia had the points’ lead by two. A win would have added to the gain and for a moment, it appeared Bagnaia might assume the lead.

Early leader Marco Bezzecchi was penalized for exceeding track limits, but before that happened, Jack Miller got around Bagnaia and pushed him back to third. Oliveira was not far behind.

After throwing away ninth-place and seven points on the last lap of the Japanese GP last week, Bagnaia did not allow the competition to press him into a mistake. He fell back as far as fourth before retaking the final position on the podium.

“It’s like a win for me, this podium,” Bagnaia. “My first podium in the wet and then there was a mix of conditions, so I’m very happy. I want to thank Jack Miller. Before the race, he gave me a motivational chat.”

Two points split the top two
20 points split the top three
40 points split the top five

Three races to go… see you in Australia 🇦🇺#MotoGP pic.twitter.com/n0WOuHPx9P

— MotoGP™🏁 (@MotoGP) October 2, 2022

Miller led the first half of the Thai Grand Prix before giving up the top spot to Oliveira and then held on to finish second. Coupled with his Japanese GP win, Miller is now fully in the MotoGP championship battle with a 40-point deficit, but he will need a string of results like Bagnaia has put together in recent weeks – and he needs Bagnaia to lose momentum.

Miller’s home Grand Prix in Australia is next up on the calendar in two weeks.

Bagnaia entered the race 18 points behind Quartararo after he failed to score any in Japan. The balance of power has rapidly shifted, however, with Quartararo now failing to earn points in two of the last three rounds. Bagnaia won four consecutive races and finished second in the five races leading up to Japan. His third-place finish in Thailand is now his sixth MotoGP podium in the last seven rounds.

Aleix Espargaro entered the race third in the standings with a 25-point deficit to Quartararo, but was able to close the gap by only five after getting hit with a long-lap penalty for aggressive riding when he pushed Darryn Binder off course during a pass for position. Espargaro finished 11th.

Rain mixed up the Moto2 running order in the MotoGP Thai Grand Prix as well. Starting on a wet track, Somkiat Chantra led the opening lap in his home Grand Prix. He could not hold onto it and crashed one circuit later, but still gave his countrymen a moment of pride by winning the pole.

Half points were awarded as the race went only eight laps before Tony Arbolino crossed under the checkers first with Filip Salac and Aron Canet rounding out the podium.

American Joe Roberts earned another top-10 in eighth with Sean Dylan Kelly finishing just outside the top 10 in 11th.

Your Chase clinch scenarios for Saturday’s regular season finale

Miguel Oliveira wins MotoGP Thai Grand Prix, Bagnaia closes to two points in championship

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