Will one last chance be enough to save Dale Earnhardt Jr.?

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For Dale Earnhardt Jr., it’s all come down to this:

One or done.

Or to put it in more succinct terms, win or done.

As Junior prepares to head to Talladega in a few days, he’s in perhaps the most desperate time of his 15-year Sprint Cup career.

Tied for last in the Chase for the Sprint Cup standings, with teammate Jimmie Johnson no less, the two Hendrick Motorsports drivers are on the verge of elimination.

They both have to win at Talladega to advance to the Eliminator Round – but only one can wind up in Victory Lane.

Sure, mathematically, Earnhardt and Johnson still have chances of advancing to the next round after Talladega without a win, but it will take a lot of luck for them and misfortune for the other 12 Chase drivers to see that possibility realized — two distinct things that you simply can’t count on in the unpredictable world of NASCAR.

Junior has enjoyed his best season in nearly a decade. With three wins, starting with the season-opening Daytona 500 triumph, he’s driven like he did in his early days at Dale Earnhardt Inc.

But somehow, some way, Earnhardt has slipped, fallen and plummeted in the last two races. Starting the Contender Round in a 12-way tie for first place, he’s dropped like a rock to the bottom of the Chase ocean.

And now he’s heading back to Talladega, where at one point early in his career he was so successful and victorious with five wins that fans started to call it TallaDalega.

But Junior’s last win on the 2.66-mile high-banked track was a decade ago, ironically enough, in fall of 2004 – just like this weekend.

Since then, Junior has competed 19 more times at ‘Dega with just three top-fives and three other top-10s.

There have been no wins, although he did come close in this race last season, finishing runner-up.

While as a journalist, you’re not supposed to have favorites, as a race fan I can’t help but feel sorry for Earnhardt’s plight.

This was supposed to be THE season for Junior. After winning Daytona, the year just had a different feel.

And for perhaps the first time in Earnhardt’s career, he had himself and his fans believing that this would finally be the year he’d earn that elusive first Sprint Cup championship.

There were other incentives as well. He was turning 40 (did so this past Friday) and to show his appreciation for all the things that crew chief Steve Letarte had done for him in the last three seasons, Junior was bound and determined to send Letarte out as a winner.

(Letarte will leave Earnhardt and Hendrick Motorsports at the end of this season to become a full-time NASCAR analyst for NBC.)

How has THE season, the long hoped for season, the one where Junior was going to channel Larry The Cable Guy and “Git ‘er done,” suddenly fallen apart so badly?

How heartbroken will the Junior Nation be if their favorite driver – and the most popular driver the last 11 seasons – fails to seal what looked like it was a sure thing, it was meant to be?

Two things will happen at Talladega. Either Junior wins there and the place and NASCAR and the sport go crazy in response, or he leaves there having come so close, only to fall short once again.

In a season where many felt it was Junior’s destiny to finally win the Cup crown, to come so close only to fall short, perhaps the actual reality is that maybe being a Sprint Cup champ will never be meant to be for Junior.

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Supercross: Tomac, Roczen square off in Arlington; Webb gives chase

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The Monster Energy Supercross championship battle remains tight after Eli Tomac took the lead from Ken Roczen just last week at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Now the series heads to Arlington, Texas, and the AT&T Stadium for Round 8. (Watch on NBCSN or stream live.)

Tomac’s third win of the 2020 season and Roczen’s third-place finish at Tampa gives Tomac a four-point advantage in what is essentially a wide-open title fight with three races on tap in Arlington.

And while it is still much too early to call this a two-man battle, Cooper Webb is 11 points back with Justin Barcia 20 points out and Adam Cianciarulo 27 points in arrears – and all three cannot afford to lose any ground this week.

Tomac has the momentum. He allowed the field to get a jump after finishing seventh at Anaheim in the season opener, but finished fourth or better in the remaining events.

Roczen also got off to a slow start in Anaheim 1 with a sixth-place finish. He seemed to have a firm grasp on the red plate with four consecutive podium finishes until he slipped to sixth for a second time at San Diego.

Webb is coming into his own with three consecutive podiums in the last three events. If not for a 12th at St. Louis, he would be in immediate contention for the red plate.

This week is the second Triple Crown race of the season and Roczen hopes he has the same success as he did at Glendale. He won all three Mains that weekend and easily walked away with the overall victory. Tomac finished 2-2-3 for second overall. It is going to be imperative that a rider takes the early lead.

Blake Baggett qualified for last week’s Main, but chose to sit it out after experiencing sever muscle spasms. He will ride in Arlington.

Henry Miller will return to riding at Arlington after breaking a scapula in Australia.

Subscribe to the Supercross Pass for complete qualification and race coverage of the 2020 season.

For the third time in his career, Shane McElrath started the season with a victory. He won the season-opener in 2017 and 2018 in the West division at Anaheim, but failed to lock down a 250 title. His seventh career win moved him to 25th on the chart, however, with Travis Pastrana, Trey Canard, and a host of others.

Chase Sexton got his title hunt off to a strong start last week as well. He finished second to earn his 10th podium in 19 starts, but he will be hungry for a win. Despite the fact that he won last year’s 250 West championship, he has only one race victory to his credit.

Last week, Jeremy Martin looked like he had not been off his bike for more than a year. Returning from a 2018 injury, Martin snagged a podium finish in his first race back.

Schedule:

Qualifying: 1 p.m. on NBC Sports Gold
Race: 8:30 p.m. on NBC Sports Gold and NBCSN

Last Week:

Eli Tomac beat Cooper Webb and Ken Roczen in the 450 class.
Shane McElrath beat Chase Sexton and Jeremy Martin in the 250 class.

Last Dallas race (February, 2019):

Cooper Webb beat Ken Roczen and Marvin Musquin in the 450 class.
Austin Forkner beat Justin Cooper and Chase Sexton in the 250 class.

Points Leaders

450s:
Eli Tomac (155)
Ken Roczen (151)
Cooper Webb (144)
Justin Barcia (135)
Adam Cianciarulo (128)

250 West:
Dylan Ferrandis (135)
Justin Cooper (128)
Austin Forkner (122)
Brandon Hartranft (110)
Alex Martin (98)

250 East:
Shane McElrath (26)
Chase Sexton (23)
Jeremy Martin (21)
Garrett Marchbanks (19)
Jordon Smith (18)

Wins

450

(3) Eli Tomac (Anaheim 2, Oakland and Tampa)
(2) Ken Roczen (St. Louis and Glendale)
(1) Justin Barcia (Anaheim 1)
(1) Cooper Webb (San Diego)

250 West

(3) Dylan Ferrandis (Anaheim 2, Oakland, and San Diego)
(2) Austin Forkner (St. Louis and Glendale)
(1) Justin Cooper (Anaheim 1)

250 East

(1) Shane McElrath (Tampa)

Top-5s

450

(6) Eli Tomac
(6) Cooper Webb
(5) Jason Anderson
(5) Ken Roczen
(5) Justin Barcia
(3) Adam Cianciarulo
(2) Zach Osborne
(2) Blake Baggett
(1) Justin Hill

250 West

(5) Dylan Ferrandis
(5) Austin Forkner
(5) Justin Cooper
(4) Michael Mosiman
(4) Brandon Hartranft
(3) Alex Martin
(1) Christian Craig
(1) Jett Lawrence
(1) Jacob Hayes
(1) Luke Clout

250 East

(1) Shane McElrath
(1) Chase Sexton
(1) Jeremy Martin
(1) Garrett Marchbanks
(1) Jordon Smith

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