Crunching the numbers: Double points gives Rosberg more shots to win in Abu Dhabi

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Nico Rosberg has taken a vital win this Sunday in the Brazilian Grand Prix, and has closed to within 17 points in the World Championship of Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton.

Double points have given the German a greater shot at the title than was otherwise possible with single points.

Hamilton wins with first or second, regardless of what Rosberg does.

In simplest terms, the easiest way for Rosberg to overcome the gap and win the title in two weeks at Abu Dhabi is to win (50 points) and have Hamilton come third (30 points) or worse. That scenario would net Rosberg the title by three points.

Rosberg can also win the title with second and Hamilton sixth or worse, third with Hamilton seventh or worse, fourth with Hamilton ninth or worse, or fifth with Hamilton 10th or worse.

Under standard points, Rosberg could only win the title down 17 with first or second.

In either case, Hamilton holds a 10-5 win tiebreaker for the season finale.

Here are the points permutations, double points versus standard points, between the two teammates:

Double Points

Merc BRZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
HAM 334 384 370 364 358 354 350 346 342 338 336
ROS 317 367 353 347 341 337 333 329 325 321 319
Dbl Pts 50 36 30 24 20 16 12 8 4 2

 

Single Points

Merc BRZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
HAM 334 359 352 349 346 344 342 340 338 336 335
ROS 317 342 335 332 329 327 325 323 321 319 318
Sngl Pts 25 18 15 12 10 8 6 4 2 1

Hunter and Jett Lawrence walk a delicate balance between winning races and favoring the fans

Hunter Jett Lawrence fans
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ANAHEIM, California – Hunter and Jett Lawrence are two of the most popular riders on the Monster Energy Supercross circuit, with fan bases that established and grew immediately when they came to America to ride for HRC Honda. Connecting with those fans came naturally for the charming Australian brothers, but it has not come without cost.

“It’s cool they’re there and it’s one of the things we try to do is give the fan that interaction,” Hunter told NBC Sports during Supercross Media Sessions ahead of the 2023 season. “It’s why we do ride days, meet-and-greets, press conferences  – all that stuff, because it’s exciting for them. We are trying to bridge the gap so they get personal interaction. Because that’s all they’re after. It’s all about getting that fan to think, ‘I know that guy. I didn’t meet him, but I get him. I get his humor.’ ”

There is no artifice in either brother. Their fan appeal is directly attributable to who they are at their core. And it’s that very genuineness that has throngs of fans standing outside their hauler, waiting for just a moment of their time.

“It’s about being yourself – talking to people,” Hunter said. “It’s not like I turn it on or turn it off; it’s just about being yourself. This is who we are, this is who you get and this is how it will be. You can’t portray something you’re not. If you keep saying you’re an orange, but apples keep popping out, it’s only a matter of time [until they figure it out].”

The key word is ‘throngs’, however. One person wanting just a few moments of time is incidental. Dozens are an entirely different matter.

“It’s tough in Supercross because it’s such a long day,” Hunter said. “The recovery side of it’s tough to do everything. We get stuck outside the grid; we can’t be there for like 10 minutes. We’re stuck there for like an hour. It gets overwhelming at times.

“You feel bad because you want to sign everything, but you’re still here for a job. Every race day is like that. We do the best we can, but there are so many people who wait out front. They’re screaming for you. Even when we’re coming off the sessions, they’re already yelling before you put your bike on the stands. You don’t even get time to take you helmet off.”

It can be a double-edged sword. Personality is only one part of the equation. A much bigger part of the brothers’ fan appeal comes because of their success. Hunter finished second in the last two Supercross 250 West title battles and third in the past two Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championships.

Jett won the last three titles he competed for, including last year’s 250 East Supercross Championship and the last two Motocross contests.

“I think they expect me to have nothing else to do on a Saturday and that I have unlimited energy,” Jett said. “But, I’m trying to recover for the next race.”

It’s a matter of timing. Jett has gained a reputation last year for handing out hundreds of donuts before the races during Red Bull fan appreciation sessions. And after the race, once the business at hand has been settled, Jett is equally available to the fans.

“After the race it’s fine; I’ll stay behind.” Jett said. “My job is done on the racing side of things, but until that last moto is done, my main thing is dirt bikes. The fans come along with it. The fans are part of the job, but main job at hand is the racing side of things. After the race, I’ll stay there for an hour or so. It’s a lot calmer.”