Crunching the numbers: Double points gives Rosberg more shots to win in Abu Dhabi

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Nico Rosberg has taken a vital win this Sunday in the Brazilian Grand Prix, and has closed to within 17 points in the World Championship of Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton.

Double points have given the German a greater shot at the title than was otherwise possible with single points.

Hamilton wins with first or second, regardless of what Rosberg does.

In simplest terms, the easiest way for Rosberg to overcome the gap and win the title in two weeks at Abu Dhabi is to win (50 points) and have Hamilton come third (30 points) or worse. That scenario would net Rosberg the title by three points.

Rosberg can also win the title with second and Hamilton sixth or worse, third with Hamilton seventh or worse, fourth with Hamilton ninth or worse, or fifth with Hamilton 10th or worse.

Under standard points, Rosberg could only win the title down 17 with first or second.

In either case, Hamilton holds a 10-5 win tiebreaker for the season finale.

Here are the points permutations, double points versus standard points, between the two teammates:

Double Points

Merc BRZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
HAM 334 384 370 364 358 354 350 346 342 338 336
ROS 317 367 353 347 341 337 333 329 325 321 319
Dbl Pts 50 36 30 24 20 16 12 8 4 2

 

Single Points

Merc BRZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
HAM 334 359 352 349 346 344 342 340 338 336 335
ROS 317 342 335 332 329 327 325 323 321 319 318
Sngl Pts 25 18 15 12 10 8 6 4 2 1