Fun with numbers: Montoya stands best chance of winning the Verizon IndyCar championship


So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

Someone has run the numbers and while seven drivers have a “chance,” when it comes to the who will be champion of the Verizon IndyCar Series this year, the odds favor one driver:

Juan Pablo Montoya.

According to simulation run by A.S. Maness, former editor of , if the last three races of the 2015 IndyCar season were run 100,000 times, the championship would be won by the Team Penske driver 75 percent of the time.

The numbers are primarily based on each driver’s historical performance at each of the remaining tracks: Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, Pocono Raceway and Sonoma Raceway.

Noteworthy as well is the fact the Sonoma round carries double points with it, which keeps eight drivers mathematically in play.

Montoya, the Indianapolis 500 winner and current points leader by 42 points over Graham Rahal, won last year at Pocono, which marked his first win since his IndyCar comeback at the start of the year.

Following Montoya is Scott Dixon (9.41 percent), Will Power (6.05), Rahal (4.40) and Helio Castroneves (3.75).

The driver with the lowest shot still remaining is Josef Newgarden at 0.17 percent. Newgarden has two wins in 2015.

Like Montoya’s unexpected crash at Iowa Speedway, it’s both hard and fun to imagine all that would have to happen to turn 0.17 into a 100.