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Topsy-turvy Supercross season may yet be righted

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There is an old saying in racing that goes, “that’s why they run the race.” Typically uttered after a dark horse wins and as a way to protect the ego of a prognosticator who got things horribly wrong, it’s a comfort that doesn’t often need to be employed because the favorites are usually that for a very good reason – they win more often than not.

This year, the phrase has been very popular. Nearly one-quarter of the way through the 2019 Supercross 450s schedule, none of the preseason favorites have found victory lane. Instead, all four races have been won by riders claiming their first, second or third career trophies.

Justin Barcia won the opening round of the 2019 season. It was his third career win, but may well have seemed like his first since he had not visited victory lane in six years previous.

The next two weekends went to riders scoring their first victories with Blake Baggett topping the podium at Glendale, Ariz. and Cooper Webb winning the Triple Crown in Anaheim II.  Coming off a couple of mediocre seasons, no one truly expected Webb to back up that performance, but last week in Oakland, he became the first rider this season to win twice.

With those back-to-back wins, Webb took the points lead in Week 4 and is riding above his pay grade.

Cooper Webb won his second career 450 race one week after scoring his first. (Courtesy SupercrossLIVE.com)

It is reminiscent of last year’s campaign by Jason Anderson. Not one of the preseason favorites, “El Hombre” took the points lead in Round 2 and held it to the end of the year. He went on to win four times during 2018 and would not be overlooked once this season began.

Anderson was considered a favorite to challenge for the championship, but he got off to a slow start with a modest run in Anaheim I that produced a 14th-place finish. In Week 2 he rebounded to second; the next week, he was mid-pack again with a ninth. Anderson’s bid to win back-to-back championships was quashed by a practice crash in the middle of last week.

Still, the dark horses face a steep, uphill battle in 2019. If Webb looks over his shoulder he will see three experienced riders within four points of his lead.

Webb took the lead from Ken Roczen last week, but holds only a two-point margin over a rider who has swept the top five in the first four races of the year. Like Barcia, Roczen is also suffering through a long winless steak and is incredibly hungry. Unfortunately, he is on a downward trajectory with results of second, third, fourth and fifth in successive weeks.

Third-place Eli Tomac also has a perfect record of top fives this year with a pair of third-place finishes and two fourths to his credit. He is three points out of the lead.

Marvin Musquin might well have the most momentum, however. He has back to back runner-up finishes in the past two weeks and sits four points behind Webb. Last week in San Diego, he chomped away at Webb’s lead in the second half of the feature and closed the gap to less than one second at the checkers.

Follow Dan Beaver on Twitter

Supercross Preview: It’s Webb’s World for now

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A short launching area and tight left-hand turn is going to create a lot of drama this week in Round 8 of the Supercross season as the riders invade Detroit’s Ford Field after one year off.

Last week Cooper Webb won for the fourth time in the last five races. Incredibly, two of these count among the five closest finishes in Supercross history with a .760-second win over Marvin Musquin at Oakland and last week’s .028-second win over Ken Roczen. Webb has won in a variety of ways so far this year. He has gained experience protecting a lead and coming from behind with Arlington’s incredible run. He even won the first Triple Crown race at Anaheim II after taking two of the three heats.

Last year, Jason Anderson seemingly came out of nowhere to grab the points lead in Round 2. He never relinquished it. Webb has tighter competition in 2019, but he shows know sign of letting up as the four-man battle for the lead became a three-rider challenge last week with Eli Tomac’s trouble.

Eli Tomac cooled off in a hurry. After sweeping the top five in the first five rounds and winning San Diego, he finished sixth in Minneapolis and 12th at Arlington. This week will be a test of his ability to rebound.

Which rider will be the first to win in 2019, Roczen or Musquin? Between them they have finished second or third 10 times this season. They have both stood on the podium in the last three events, but have yet to climb to the top rung.

Vince Friese injured his knee during practice at Arlington and may have a torn ACL. He is unlikely to ride this week.

Schedule:

Qualifying: 12 p.m. on NBC Sports, Gold
Race: Live, 7 p.m. on NBC Sports, Gold, 8 p.m. on NBCSN

Last Week:

Cooper Webb won his fourth event in the past five races over Ken Roczen and Marvin Musquin in the 450 class.
Austin Forkner won over Justin Cooper and Chase Sexton in the 250 class.

Last Year:

Event was not run in 2018.

In 2017 Eli Tomac beat Marvin Musquin and Ryan Dungey in the 450 class.
In 250s, Jordon Smith won over Joey Savatgy and Adam Cianciarulo in the 250 class.

Winners

450s:
[4] Cooper Webb (Anaheim II, Oakland, Minneapolis, and Arlington)
[1] Justin Barcia (Anaheim I)
[1] Blake Baggett (Glendale)
[1] Eli Tomac (San Diego)

250 West:
[3] Adam Cianciarulo (Glendale, Oakland, San Diego)
[1] Colt Nichols (Anaheim I)
[1] Shane McElrath (Anaheim II)

250 East:
[2] Austin Forkner (Minneapolis and Arlington)

Top-5s

450s:
Ken Roczen (7)
Marvin Musquin (6)
Eli Tomac (5)
Cooper Webb (5)
Blake Baggett (3)
Dean Wilson (2)
Joey Savatgy (2)
Justin Barcia (1)
Jason Anderson (1)
Justin Bogle (1)
Chad Reed (1)
Justin Brayton (1)

250 West:
Shane McElrath (5)
Adam Cianciarulo (5)
Colt Nichols (4)
RJ Hampshire (3)
Dylan Ferrandis (3)
James Decotis (2)
Jacob Hayes (1)
Garrett Marchbanks (1)
Jess Pettis (1)

250 East:
Austin Forkner (2)
Jordon Smith (2)
Justin Cooper (2)
Chase Sexton (2)
Alex Martin (1)
Martin Davalos (1)

Points Leaders

450s:
Cooper Webb (150)
Ken Roczen (148)
Marvin Musquin (144)
Eli Tomac (134)
Dean Wilson (110)

250 West:
Adam Cianciarulo (114)
Shane McElrath (105)
Colt Nichols (104)
Dylan Ferrandis (102)
RJ Hampshire (75)

250 East:
Austin Forkner (52)
Justin Cooper (44)
Jordon Smith (42)
Chase Sexton (39)
Mitchell Oldenburg (34)
Alex Martin (34)

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