Max Verstappen heavily favored over Lewis Hamilton in PointsBet odds for Mexican GP

PointsBet odds Mexican GP
Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images
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Lewis Hamilton won two of the last four editions of the Mexican GP, but this week the winner of the other two, Max Verstappen, is the heavy odds favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook to win this year’s running on Sunday. Verstappen was the winner in 2017 and 2018.

In his most recent attempt in 2019, Verstappen finished sixth, more than one minute off Hamilton’s pace. But it is Verstappen that currently holds the advantage in the Drivers Championship by 12 points over his Mercedes rival, which is part of what contributes to his -185 line at PointsBet. Verstappen was quickest in Friday’s second practice session at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.

Nearly 500 points higher than Verstappen, Hamilton is ranked second this week with a line of +275. Hamilton was second fastest on Friday in Practice 1 and third-best in Practice 2 after being pressured by Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Perez. Hamilton won the most recent Mexican GP in 2019. The 2020 edition of this race was canceled because of challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic.

One way to view American Odds is to move the decimal point two positions to the left. That will let a bettor know what they will make on a $1 bet, so the return on investment this week for Hamilton is $2.75. For bettors more comfortable with fractional odds, a bet of +300 is the same as 3/1.

The last four F1 races have each been won by a different driver with Daniel Ricciardo stepping up at Monza after Verstappen and Hamilton crashed. Two races ago in Turkey, Valtteri Bottas beat Verstappen and Perez.

Still, there is a big drop off to the third ranked driver. Perez is listed at +1100 after standing on the podium in the last two races. Perez will compete in front of his countrymen this week, but his weekend got off to a bad start after crashing early in Practice 1 on Friday.

Bottas, who was fastest in the first practice session and who beat teammate Hamilton in both sessions, is ranked fourth with a line of +2000. Bottas’ win in Turkey was the culmination of four consecutive top-fives in the series. He finished sixth last week at the Circuit of the Americas. Bottas was third in the 2019 Mexican GP.

Rounding out the top five this week is Charles Leclerc, who also spun in the final turn in Practice 1 and damaged his week. Leclerc is listed at +3500. He has four top-fives in his last five starts, but failed to reach the podium with a best of fourth.

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For more betting coverage, check out NBC Sports Edge.

Houston Supercross by the numbers: Five riders begin to gap the field

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Chase Sexton stumbled in San Diego and Eli Tomac had a hard fall in Anaheim 2, but the Monster Energy Supercross numbers for Houston suggest they will continue to be the ones to beat in Houston. To do so, they will have to turn back challenges from another pair of riders who have swept the top five in the first three rounds and another with a worst finish of sixth.

Houston Supercross numbers
Cooper Webb’s ability to close races makes him a Houston favorite. – Feld Motor Sports

Despite an accident in his heat in San Diego that sent him to the Last Chance Qualifier (LCQ), Sexton recovered to score a top-five that weekend. His podium finish in Anaheim 1 and overall win last week in Anaheim 2 makes him one of the three riders with a perfect top-five record. He is joined by Cooper Webb, who finished second in the first two rounds and fourth last week, and Ken Roczen, whose consistency in the first three races contributed to him grabbing the top spot in this week’s NBC Supercross Power Rankings.

There are reasons to believe Webb and Roczen can keep those streaks alive.

Webb is the only multiple winner at Supercross’ current Houston stadium. His pair of wins came in 2019 and 2021, the same year he won his two 450 championships.

Clinton Fowler points out this week, that Webb has carried that strength into 2023. Webb had a late surge in Anaheim 1, advancing from fifth to second in the final six laps. In San Diego, he set his ninth fastest lap with two to go and his eighth fastest on the final lap. He posted his fastest lap of Anaheim 2 on Lap 12 while the rest of the field did so on Lap 6 on average.

By comparison, Tomac set his 14th fastest lap on the final circuit in route to winning the Main at San Diego while he was trying to keep Webb at bay.

With a sixth at San Diego, Dylan Ferrandis barely missed sweeping the top five in his first three races as did Tomac with a sixth last week at Anaheim 2.

This will be the 46th year Supercross has visited Houston and with 55 races the city is tied for the second-most with Detroit.

Jim Pomeroy won the first race in the Astrodome during the inaugural season of 1974 on a 250, which was the premiere class at the time. Houston was one of three races held that year along with events at Daytona International Speedway and the Los Angeles Coliseum. All three venues return in 2023 with the first SuperMotocross championship finale returning to the famed LA Coliseum in September.

Webb won most recently in 2021 in the final race of three held there that year as the series executed a strategy of racing in residencies to limit travel during height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Tomac and Justin Barcia also won in Houston in 2021.

Two privateers have started the season on a high note.

Joshua Cartwright and Joshua Varize have each made the last two Mains. Cartwright finished 18th in San Diego and 21st last week in Anaheim 2 – all while working fulltime as a Business Intelligence Analyst at the University of Texas, Dallas. Varize earned a top-15 (12th) in San Diego and was 21st in Anaheim 2 in his third season on a 450.

Michael Mosiman scored his first 250 win last year in San Diego. – Feld Motor Sports

The numbers show none of the active 250 Supercross East riders have won in Houston, so no matter who steps on top of the box, there is going to be a fresh face. That is not surprising since most of the top competitors have not raced at this venue yet.

Michael Mosiman has a pair of top-fives there, however. His best finish was a second in the second 2021 race. Garrett Marchbanks scored a top-10 in his rookie season of 2019 in Houston.

In the 250 East division, Hunter Lawrence is one of the favorites to win the title now that Christian Craig has moved to 450s. Last year he had four wins and nine podiums, but failed to set a fast lap in a race.

The other 250 riders with 2022 wins this week are Mosiman, who earned his first Supercross win last year in San Diego, and Nate Thrasher, who became the fifth new class winner at Daytona.

Jeremy Martin will attempt to extend a record this week in Houston. His division leading SuperMotocross podiums number 65. He has 26 wins in the combined sessions, which ranks fourth all time.

Last Five Houston Winners

450s
2022, no race
2021, Race 3: Cooper Webb
2021, Race 2: Eli Tomac
2021, Race 1: Justin Barcia
2020, no race
2019, Cooper Webb
2018, Jason Anderson

250s
2022, no race
2021, Race 3: Colt Nichols
2021, Race 2: Jett Lawrence
2021, Race 1: Christian Craig
2020, no race
2019, Dylan Ferrandis
2018, Aaron Plessinger

By the Numbers

Anaheim 2
San Diego

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