Josef Newgarden slightly favored by PointsBet at Nashville over Pato O’Ward

PointsBet Nashville Newgarden
Brian Spurlock / Getty Images

Josef Newgarden is the PointsBet Sportsbook favorite for Sunday’s Big Machine Music City Grand Prix on the streets of Nashville, Tenn. (3 p.m. ET on NBC). For more details on how to watch, click here.

With a win at Long Beach this season and top-10s in all but one of the nine street courses during the past two years, Newgarden has shown a high degree of consistency on this track type, which accounts for his +425 odds. In addition to his win, the Team Penske driver has runner-up finishes at St. Petersburg, Belle Isle and Long Beach in 2021. Newgarden looks to cut into Will Power’s 32-point lead on his home track.

One way to view American Odds is to move the decimal point two positions to the left. That will let a bettor know what they will make on a $1 bet, so the return on investment this week for Newgarden is $4.25. For bettors more comfortable with fractional odds, a bet of +300 is the same as 3/1.

Newgarden is only slightly favored over Pato O’Ward at +440, despite that driver’s erratic finishes on street courses in the past two seasons. O’Ward has one win and four top-fives on temporary road courses in that span, with his most recent strong run ending fifth at Belle Isle. Five of his last nine street course starts ended outside the top 10.

Ranked third is Colton Herta with a line of +520. He scored a pair of street course wins in 2021, at St. Pete and Long Beach. While he has not added another street victory in 2022, he came close with a second-place finish in Toronto and has three top-10s in four starts on the course type this year.

Herta narrowly edges points’ leader Power at +540. Power swept the top-five in the first three street races this season and earned the victory at Belle Isle. He slipped to 15th at Toronto, but rebounded to finish third on the permanent road course inside Indianapolis Motor Speedway last week.

Rounding out the top five is Alex Palou with a line of +800. On combined road and street courses, Palou has eight results of sixth or better in his last 11 starts, including a win at Portland International Raceway last year.

Three other drivers are listed under 10/1 at PointsBet with Scott Dixon, last year’s Nashville winner Marcus Ericsson, and last week’s winner Alexander Rossi each posted at +850 – a line more double that of Newgarden.

Previous Betting Lines

St Petersburg: Colton Herta tops the list
Texas: Scott Dixon favored
Long Beach: Herta favored for second street race
Barber: Herta still favored, but line gets longer
GMR Grand Prix: Herta continue to be road racing favorite
Indy 500: Dixon favored; Jimmie Johnson solid dark horse
Road America: Alex Palou is slightly favored
Mid-Ohio: Josef Newgarden tops the list
Toronto: Newgarden narrowly favored in tight field
Iowa: Newgarden still favored as he stretches betting line lead
Gallagher Grand Prix: Paro O’Ward, Felix Rosenqvist lead tight field

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Seattle Supercross by the numbers: Three riders separated by 17 points


Three riders remain locked in a tight battle with 17 points separating the leader Cooper Webb from third-place Chase Sexton and these are only a few Supercross numbers to consider entering Seattle.

Seattle Supercross numbers
Chase Sexton made a statement in Detroit with his second win of 2023. – Feld Motor Sports

For the fifth time in 10 rounds. Sexton, Webb, and Eli Tomac shared the podium in Detroit. Between them, the trio has taken 23 podiums, leaving only seven for the remainder of the field. Jason Anderson, Ken Roczen and Justin Barcia have two each with Aaron Plessinger scoring the other.

Webb and Tomac won the last four championships with two apiece in alternating years, but they were not one another’s primary rival for most of those seasons. On the average, however, the past four years show an incredible similarity with average points earned of 21.0 for Webb and 21.3 for Tomac. With five wins so far this season, Tomac (23 wins) leads Webb (19) in victories but Webb (43) edges Tomac (41) in podium finishes during this span.

Tomac has won two of the last three Seattle races and those two wins in this stadium are topped only by James Stewart. Fittingly, if Tomac gets a third win this week, he will tie Stewart for second on the all-time wins’ list. Tomac tied Ricky Carmichael for third with 48 wins at Oakland and took sole possession of that spot with his Daytona win.

Sexton still has a lot to say and after winning last week in Detroit, he is speaking up. The Supercross numbers are against him entering Seattle, however, because a points’ deficit this large after Round 10 has been erased only once. In 1983 David Bailey was 47 points behind Bob Hannah, and like Sexton he was also in third place. Bailey took the points’ lead with one race remaining.

The seven points Sexton was penalized last week for jumping in a red cross flag section in Detroit could prove extremely costly.

In fact, it has been a series of mistakes that has cost Sexton the most. In the last two weeks, he lost 10 points with a 10th-place finish to go with his penalty. Erase those, and all three riders hold their fate in their hands.

Plessinger’s heartbreak in Detroit is still fresh, but the upside of his run is that was his best of the season and could turn his fortunes around. Prior to that race, he led only seven laps in three mains. He was up front for 20 laps in Detroit with five of those being the fastest on the track.

Last week’s win by Hunter Lawrence tied him with his brother Jett Lawrence for 17th on the all-time wins’ list. With the focus shifting to 250 West for the next two rounds, Jett has a great opportunity to pull back ahead. The real test will be at the first East / West Showdown in East Rutherford, New Jersey on April 22.

Last Five Seattle Winners

2022: Eli Tomac
2019: Marvin Musquin
2018: Eli Tomac
2017: Marvin Musquin
2014: Ryan Villopoto

2022: Hunter Lawrence
2019: Dylan Ferrandis
2018: Aaron Plessinger
2017: Aaron Plessinger
2014: Cole Seely

By the Numbers

Anaheim 2
San Diego

More SuperMotocross coverage

How to Watch Seattle Supercross
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SMX develops “Leader Lights”
Power Rankings after Detroit
Hunter Lawrence defends Haiden Deegan
Results and points after Detroit
Chase Sexton wins in Detroit, penalized seven points